A Speculation on the Goals and Strategy of the Foe
wmtingleywrites: “[1] Al Qaeda launched the 9/11 attacks as part of an escalating terror campaign against the United States. They expected a capitulation by us, not the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq.”
My comment:
Interesting. I had been assuming that Al Qaeda’s main purpose was to shore up support among their base, to awe and impress their Sunni allies and to awe and terrify their Shiite enemies. It was a symbolic, a religious act, not a military one: it was a holocaust of human victims to the altar of Allah, but with the political purpose of displaying Al Qaeda to be the “strong horse” — strong enough to kick the Great Satan in the crotch, brave enough to die in for the Cause.
To Al Qaeda, it was a win-win proposition: If American lashed out, this would stir up a general uprising and mutiny among the Faithful, and the millions of Moslems would find a unified purpose in Jihad against the West. If American did not lash out, this would show them to be a Paper Tiger.
The outcome they did not expect was that America would lash out, quickly destroy the regimes in Afghanistan and Iraq, but that the Muslim world would remain mostly neutral, and offer only tepid and hesitant support for the Jihad.
And I think Al Qaeda was also expecting supernatural intervention on their behalf, which did not eventuate.
However, read all the above with a grain of salt. It is speculation on my part, an impression. I am a sci-fi writer[1], by Grabthar’s hammer, not a foreign policy expert, not a spy, so I welcome correct from any authoritative source.
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[1] endnote: My expertise lies in other areas. If you want to know which planet Paul Muad-dib comes from, or what is the home star of the Kzinti, that I can answer without even googling it (Caladan is the third planet of Delta Pavonis, the Kzin homeworld orbits 61 Ursae Majoris). And I also know the real name of the Perfesser and the Skipper from Gilligan’s Island (Roy Hinkley, Jonas Grumby).
About John C Wright
John C. Wright is a practicing philosopher, a retired attorney, newspaperman, and newspaper editor, and a published author of science fiction. Once a Houyhnhnm, he was expelled from the august ranks of purely rational beings when he fell in love; but retains an honorary title.
