Archive for August, 2008

George Lucas is not One of Us

Posted August 29, 2008 By John C Wright

Calloo, calais! O Frabjous day! My essay about the future of STAR WARS is posted over at SfSignal. It is not the best answer of the answers listed there (that, I think came from Jeff Patterson, whose answer I really liked, or Bruce Bethke who correctly gives credit where credit is due: to Leigh Brackett, who made Han Solo memorable by making him Northwest Smith, if you catch the reference), but it is my answer, and I stick by it.

George Lucas is not one of us.

No one, I hope, will question my Star Wars fanboy credentials. I own my own lightsaber. I know the name of the jedi-knight with tentacles on his head who appears on screen for one second in Revenge of the Sith, and gets killed (Kit Fisto). I love these movies.

No, let me correct that. I love Star Wars, the idea of Star Wars; I love what Star Wars should have been. I hate the movies, precisely because they are not
what they should have been. Let me tell you (in reverse order) what they are, and what they should have been, and tell you why they are not what they should have been.

They are not what they should have been because George Lucas is not one of us. He is not a science fiction guy. He does not have a feel for space opera. He does not get it.

This sounds too absurd to believe, does it not?

Read, as they say, the whole thing. 

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What in the World is Going On by Herbert Myer

Posted August 27, 2008 By John C Wright

My father send me a copy of this article from the Davos summit. I reprint it here, complete, without further comment:

This is a paper presented several weeks ago by Herb Meyer at a Davos, Switzerland meeting which was attended by most of the CEO’s from all the major international corporations — a very good summary of today’s key trends and a perspective one seldom sees. Herbert E. Meyer served during the Reagan Administration as Special Assistant to the Director of Central Intelligence and Vice Chairman of the CIA’s National Intelligence Council. In these positions, he managed production of the U.S. National Intelligence Estimates and other top- secret projections for the President and his national security advisers.

Meyer is widely credited with being the first senior U.S. Government official to forecast the Soviet Union’s collapse, for which he later was awarded the U.S. National Intelligence Distinguished Service Medal, the intelligence community’s highest honor.

 

WHAT IN THE WORLD IS GOING ON? A GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING FOR CEO’s

By HERBERT MEYER

FOUR MAJOR TRANSFORMATIONS

Currently, there are four major transformations that are shaping political, economic and world events. These transformations have profound implications for American business leaders and owners, our culture and on our way of life.

1. The War in Iraq

There are three major monotheistic religions in the world: Christianity, Judaism and Islam. In the 16th century, Judaism and Christianity reconciled with the modern world. The rabbis, priests and scholars found a way to settle up and pave the way forward. Religion remained at the center of life, church and state became separate. Rule of law, idea of economic liberty, individual rights, and human Rights-all these are defining point of modern Western civilization. These concepts started with the Greeks but didn’t take off until the 15th and 16th century when Judaism and Christianity found a way to reconcile with the modern world. When that happened, it unleashed the scientific revolution and the greatest outpouring of art, literature and music the world has ever known. Islam, which developed in the 7th century, counts millions of Moslems around the world who are normal people. However, there is a radical streak within Islam. When the radicals are in charge, Islam attacks Western civilization. Islam first attacked Western civilization in the 7th century, and later in the 16th and 17th centuries. By 1683, the Moslems (Turks from the Ottoman Empire) were literally at the gates of Vienna. It was in Vienna that the climatic battle between Islam and Western civilization took place. The West won and went forward. Islam lost and went backward. Interestingly, the date of that battle was September 11. Since then, Islam has not found a way to reconcile with the modern world.

Today, terrorism is the third attack on Western civilization by radical Islam.

To deal with terrorism, the U.S. is doing two things. First, units of our armed forces are in 30 countries around the world hunting down terrorist groups and dealing with them. This gets very little publicity. Second we are taking military action in Afghanistan and Iraq.

 These actions are covered relentlessly by the media. People can argue about whether the war in Iraq is right or wrong. However, the underlying strategy behind the war is to use our military to remove the radicals from power and give the moderates a chance. Our hope is that, over time, the moderates will find a way to bring Islam forward into the 21st century. That’s what our involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan is all about.

The lesson of 9/11 is that we live in a world where a small number of people can kill a large number of people very quickly. They can use airplanes, bombs, anthrax, chemical weapons or dirty bombs. Even with a first-rate intelligence service (which the U.S. does not have), you can’t stop every attack. That means our tolerance for political horseplay has dropped to zero. No longer will we play games with terrorists or weapons of mass destructions.

Most of the instability and horseplay is coming from the Middle East.

That’s why we have thought that if we could knock out the radicals and give the moderates a chance to hold power; they might find a way to reconcile Islam with the modern world. So when looking at Afghanistan or Iraq, it’s important to look for any signs that they are modernizing.

For example, women being brought into the work force and colleges in Afghanistan is good. The Iraqis stumbling toward a constitution is good.

 People can argue about what the U.S. is doing and how we’re doing it, but anything that suggests Islam is finding its way forward is good.

2. The Emergence of China

In the last 20 years, China has moved 250 million people from the farms and villages into the cities. Their plan is to move another 300 million in the next 20 years. When you put that many people into the cities, you have to find work for them. That’s why China is addicted to manufacturing; they have to put all the relocated people to work. When we decide to manufacture something in the U.S., it’s based on market needs and the opportunity to make a profit. In China, they make the decision because they want the jobs, which is a very different calculation.

While China is addicted to manufacturing, Americans are addicted to low prices. As a result, a unique kind of economic codependency has developed between the two countries. If we ever stop buying from China, they will explode politically. If China stops selling to us, our economy will take a huge hit because prices will jump. We are subsidizing their economic development; they are subsidizing our economic growth.

Because of their huge growth in manufacturing, China is hungry for raw materials, which drive prices up worldwide. China is also thirsty for oil, which is one reason oil, is now at $138.4 a barrel. By 2020, China will produce more cars than the U.S. China is also buying its way into the oil infrastructure around the world. They are doing it in the open market and paying fair market prices, but millions of barrels of oil that would have gone to the U.S. are now going to China. China’s quest to assure it has the oil it needs to fuel its economy is a major factor in world politics and economics.

We have our Navy fleets protecting the sea lines, specifically the ability to get the tankers through. It won’t be long before the Chinese have an aircraft carrier sitting in the Persian Gulf as well. The question is, will their aircraft carrier be pointing in the same direction as ours or against us?

3. Shifting Demographics of Western Civilization

Most countries in the Western world have stopped breeding. For a civilization obsessed with sex, this is remarkable. Maintaining a steady population requires a birth rate of 2.1 In Western Europe, the birth rate currently stands at 1.5, or 30 percent below replacement. In 30 years there will be 70 to 80 million fewer Europeans than there are today. The current birth rate in Germany is 1.3. Italy and Spain are even lower at 1.2. At that rate, the working age population declines by 30 percent in 20 years, which has a huge impact on the economy. When you don’t have young workers to replace the older ones, you have to import them.

The European countries are currently importing Moslems. Today, the Moslems comprise 10 percent of France and Germany, and the percentage is rising rapidly because they have higher birthrates. However, the Moslem populations are not being integrated into the cultures of their host countries, which is a political catastrophe. One reason Germany and France don’t support the Iraq war is they fear their Moslem populations will explode on them. By 2020, more than half of all births in the Netherlands will be non-European.

The huge design flaw in the postmodern secular state is that you need a traditional religious society birth rate to sustain it. The Europeans simply don’t wish to have children, so they are dying. In Japan, the birthrate is 1.3. As a result, Japan will lose up to 60 million people over the next 30 years. Because Japan has a very different society than Europe, they refuse to import workers. Instead, they are just shutting down. Japan has already closed 2,000 schools, and is closing them down at the rate of 300 per year. Japan is also aging very rapidly. By 2020, one out of every five Japanese will be at least 70 years old. Nobody has any idea about how to run an economy with those demographics.

Europe and Japan, which comprise two of the world’s major economic engines, aren’t merely in recession, they’re shutting down. This will have a huge impact on the world economy, and it is already beginning to happen. Why are the birthrates so low? There is a direct correlation between abandonment of traditional religious society and a drop in birth rate, and Christianity in Europe is becoming irrelevant.

The second reason is economic. When the birth rate drops below replacement, the population ages. With fewer working people to support more retired people, it puts a crushing tax burden on the smaller group of working age people. As a result, young people delay marriage and having a family. Once this trend starts, the downward spiral only gets worse. These countries have abandoned all the traditions they formerly held in regard to having families and raising children.

The U.S. birth rate is 2.0, just below replacement. We have an increase in population because of immigration. When broken down by ethnicity, the Anglo birth rate is 1.6 (same as France) while the Hispanic birth rate is 2.7. In the U.S., the baby boomers are starting to retire in massive numbers. This will push the elder dependency ratio from 19 to 38 over the next 10 to 15 years. This is not as bad as Europe, but still represents the same kind of trend.

Western civilization seems to have forgotten what every primitive society understands-you need kids to have a healthy society. Children are huge consumers. Then they grow up to become taxpayers. That’s how a society works, but the postmodern secular state seems to have forgotten that. If U.S. birth rates of the past 20 to 30 years had been the same as post-World War II, there would be no Social Security or Medicare problems.

The world’s most effective birth control device is money. As society creates a middle class and women move into the workforce, birth rates drop. Having large families is incompatible with middle class living.

The quickest way to drop the birth rate is through rapid economic development. After World War II, the U.S. instituted a $600 tax credit per child. The idea was to enable mom and dad to have four children without being troubled by taxes. This led to a baby boom of 22 million kids, which was a huge consumer market. That turned into a huge tax base. However, to match that incentive in today’s dollars would cost $12,000 per child.

China and India do not have declining populations. However, in both countries, there is a preference for boys over girls, and we now have the technology to know which is which before they are born. In China and India, families are aborting the girls. As a result, in each of these countries there are 70 million boys growing up who will never find wives. When left alone, nature produces 103 boys for every 100 girls. In some provinces, however, the ratio is 128 boys to every 100 girls.

The birth rate in Russia is so low that by 2050 their population will be smaller than that of Yemen. Russia has one-sixth of the earth’s land surface and much of its oil. You can’t control that much area with such a small population. Immediately to the south, you have China with 70 million unmarried men who are a real potential nightmare scenario for Russia.

4. Restructuring of American Business

The fourth major transformation involves a fundamental restructuring of American business. Today’s business environment is very complex and competitive. To succeed, you have to be the best, which means having the highest quality and lowest cost. Whatever your price point, you must have the best quality and lowest price. To be the best, you have to concentrate on one thing. You can’t be all things to all people and be the best.

A generation ago, IBM used to make every part of their computer. Now Intel makes the chips, Microsoft makes the software, and someone else makes the modems, hard drives, monitors, etc. IBM even out sources their call center. Because IBM has all these companies supplying goods and services cheaper and better than they could do it themselves, they can make a better computer at a lower cost. This is called a fracturing of business. When one company can make a better product by relying on others to perform functions the business used to do itself, it creates a complex pyramid of companies that serve and support each other.

This fracturing of American business is now in its second generation.

The companies who supply IBM are now doing the same thing – outsourcing many of their core services and production process. As a result, they can make cheaper, better products. Over time, this pyramid continues to get bigger and bigger. Just when you think it can’t fracture again, it does.

Even very small businesses can have a large pyramid of corporate entities that perform many of its important functions. One aspect of this trend is that companies end up with fewer employees and more independent contractors. This trend has also created two new words in business, integrator and complementor. At the top of the pyramid, IBM is the integrator. As you go down the pyramid, Microsoft, Intel and the other companies that support IBM are the complementors. However, each of the complementors is itself an integrator for the complementors underneath it.

This has several implications, the first of which is that we are now getting false readings on the economy. People who used to be employees are now independent contractors launching their own businesses. There are many people working whose work is not listed as a job. As a result, the economy is perking along better than the numbers are telling us.

Outsourcing also confused the numbers. Suppose a company like General Motors decides to outsource all its employee cafeteria functions to Marriott (which it did). It lays-off hundreds of cafeteria workers, who then get hired right back by Marriott. The only thing that has changed is that these people work for Marriott rather than GM. Yet, the media headlines will scream that America has lost more manufacturing jobs. All that really happened is that these workers are now reclassified as service workers. So the old way of counting jobs contributes to false economic readings. As yet, we haven’t figured out how to make the numbers catch up with the changing realities of the business world.

Another implication of this massive restructuring is that because companies are getting rid of units and people that used to work for them, the entity is smaller. As the companies get smaller and more efficient, revenues are going down but profits are going up. As a result, the old notion that revenues are up and we’re doing great isn’t always the case anymore. Companies are getting smaller but are becoming more efficient and profitable in the process.

IMPLICATIONS OF THE FOUR TRANSFORMATIONS

1. The War in Iraq

In some ways, the war is going very well. Afghanistan and Iraq have the beginnings of a modern government, which is a huge step forward. The Saudis are starting to talk about some good things, while Egypt and Lebanon are beginning to move in a good direction. A series of revolutions have taken place in countries like Ukraine and Georgia.

There will be more of these revolutions for an interesting reason. In every revolution, there comes a point where the dictator turns to the general and says, Fire into the crowd. If the general fires into the crowd, it stops the revolution. If the general says No, the revolution continues. Increasingly, the generals are saying No because their kids are in the crowd.

Thanks to TV and the Internet, the average 18-year old outside the U.S. is very savvy about what is going on in the world, especially in terms of popular culture. There is a huge global consciousness, and young people around the world want to be a part of it. It is increasingly apparent to them that the miserable government where they live is the only thing standing in their way. More and more, it is the well-educated kids, the children of the generals and the elite, who are leading the revolutions.

At the same time, not all is well with the war. The level of violence in Iraq is much worse and doesn’t appear to be improving. It’s possible that we’re asking too much of Islam all at one time. We’re trying to jolt them from the 7th century to the 21st century all at once, which may be further than they can go. They might make it and they might not.

Nobody knows for sure. The point is, we don’t know how the war will turn out. Anyone who says they know is just guessing. The real place to watch is Iran. If they actually obtain nuclear weapons it will be a terrible situation. There are two ways to deal with it. The first is a military strike, which will be very difficult. The Iranians have dispersed their nuclear development facilities and put them underground. The U.S. has nuclear weapons that can go under the earth and take out those facilities, but we don’t want to do that.

The other way is to separate the radical mullahs from the government, which is the most likely course of action. Seventy percent of the Iranian population is under 30. They are Moslem but not Arab. They are mostly pro-Western. Many experts think the U.S. should have dealt with Iran before going to war with Iraq. The problem isn’t so much the weapons; it’s the people who control them. If Iran has a moderate government, the weapons become less of a concern.

We don’t know if we will win the war in Iraq. We could lose or win. What we’re looking for is any indicator that Islam is moving into the 21st century and stabilizing.

2. China

It may be that pushing 500 million people from farms and villages into cities is too much too soon. Although it gets almost no publicity, China is experiencing hundreds of demonstrations around the country, which is unprecedented. These are not students in Tiananmen Square. These are average citizens who are angry with the government for building chemical plants and polluting the water they drink and the air they breathe.

The Chinese are a smart and industrious people. They may be able to pull it off and become a very successful economic and military superpower. If so, we will have to learn to live with it. If they want to share the responsibility of keeping the world’s oil lanes open, that’s a good thing. They currently have eight new nuclear electric power generators under way and 45 on the books to build. Soon, they will leave the U.S. way behind in their ability to generate nuclear power.

What can go wrong with China? For one, you can’t move 550 million people into the cities without major problems. Two, China really wants Taiwan, not so much for economic reasons, they just want it. The Chinese know that their system of communism can’t survive much longer in the 21st century. The last thing they want to do before they morph into some sort of more capitalistic government is to take over Taiwan.

We may wake up one morning and find they have launched an attack on Taiwan. If so, it will be a mess, both economically and militarily. The U.S. has committed to the military defense of Taiwan. If China attacks Taiwan, will we really go to war against them? If the Chinese generals believe the answer is no, they may attack. If we don’t defend Taiwan, every treaty the U.S. has will be worthless. Hopefully, China won’t do anything stupid.

3. Demographics

Europe and Japan are dying because their populations are aging and shrinking. These trends can be reversed if the young people start breeding. However, the birth rates in these areas are so low it will take two generations to turn things around. No economic model exists that permits 50 years to turn things around. Some countries are beginning to offer incentives for people to have bigger families. For example, Italy is offering tax breaks for having children. However, it’s a lifestyle issue versus a tiny amount of money. Europeans aren’t willing to give up their comfortable lifestyles in order to have more children.

In general, everyone in Europe just wants it to last a while longer.

Europeans have a real talent for living. They don’t want to work very hard. The average European worker gets 400 more hours of vacation time per year than Americans. They don’t want to work and they don’t want to make any of the changes needed to revive their economies.

The summer after 9/11, France lost 15,000 people in a heat wave. In August, the country basically shuts down when everyone goes on vacation.

 That year, a severe heat wave struck and 15,000 elderly people living in nursing homes and hospitals died. Their children didn’t even leave the beaches to come back and take care of the bodies. Institutions had to scramble to find enough refrigeration units to hold the bodies until people came to claim them. This loss of life was five times bigger than 9/11 in America, yet it didn’t trigger any change in French society.

When birth rates are so low, it creates a tremendous tax burden on the young. Under those circumstances, keeping mom and dad alive is not an attractive option. That’s why euthanasia is becoming so popular in most European countries. The only country that doesn’t permit (and even encourage) euthanasia is Germany, because of all the baggage from World War II.

The European economy is beginning to fracture. Countries like Italy are starting to talk about pulling out of the European Union because it is killing them. When things get bad economically in Europe, they tend to get very nasty politically. The canary in the mine is anti- Semitism.

When it goes up, it means trouble is coming. Current levels of anti- Semitism are higher than ever.

Germany won’t launch another war, but Europe will likely get shabbier, more dangerous and less pleasant to live in. Japan has a birth rate of 1.3 and has no intention of bringing in immigrants. By 2020, one out of every five Japanese will be 70 years old. Property values in Japan have dropped every year for the past 14 years. The country is simply shutting down. In the U.S. we also have an aging population. Boomers are starting to retire at a massive rate. These retirements will have several major impacts:

Possible massive sell off of large four-bedroom houses and a movement to condos.

An enormous drain on the treasury. Boomers vote and they want their benefits, even if it means putting a crushing tax burden on their kids to get them. Social Security will be a huge problem. As this generation ages, it will start to drain the system. We are the only country in the world where there are no age limits on medical procedures. An enormous drain on the health care system. This will also increase the tax burden on the young, which will cause them to delay marriage and having families, which will drive down the birth rate even further.

Although scary, these demographics also present enormous opportunities for products and services tailored to aging populations. There will be tremendous demand for caring for older people, especially those who don’t need nursing homes but need some level of care. Some people will have a business where they take care of three or four people in their homes. The demand for that type of service and for products to physically care for aging people will be huge.

Make sure the demographics of your business are attuned to where the action is. For example, you don’t want to be a baby food company in Europe or Japan. Demographics are much underrated as an indicator of where the opportunities are. Businesses need customers. Go where the customers are.

4. Restructuring of American Business

the restructuring of American business means we are coming to the end of the age of the employer and employee. With all this fracturing of businesses into different and smaller units, employers can’t guarantee jobs anymore because they don’t know what their companies will look like next year. Everyone is on their way to becoming an independent contractor.

The new workforce contract will be: Show up at the my office five days a week and do what I want you to do, but you handle your own insurance, benefits, healthcare and everything else. Husbands and wives are becoming economic units. They take different jobs and work different shifts depending on where they are in their careers and families. They make tradeoffs to put together a compensation package to take care of the family.

This used to happen only with highly educated professionals with high incomes. Now it is happening at the level of the factory floor worker.

Couples at all levels are designing their compensation packages based on their individual needs. The only way this can work is if everything is portable and flexible, which requires a huge shift in the American economy.

The U.S. is in the process of building the world’s first 21st century model economy. The only other countries doing this are U. K. and Australia. The model is fast, flexible, highly productive and unstable in that it is always fracturing and re-fracturing. This will increase the economic gap between the U.S. and everybody else, especially Europe and Japan.

At the same time, the military gap is increasing. Other than China, we are the only country that is continuing to put money into their military. Plus, we are the only military getting on-the-ground military experience through our war in Iraq. We know which high-tech weapons are working and which ones aren’t. There is almost no one who can take us on economically or militarily.

There has never been a superpower in this position before. On the one hand, this makes the U.S. a magnet for bright and ambitious people. It also makes us a target. We are becoming one of the last holdouts of the traditional Judeo-Christian culture. There is no better place in the world to be in business and raise children. The U.S. is by far the best place to have an idea, form a business and put it into the marketplace.

We take it for granted, but it isn’t as available in other countries of the world. Ultimately, it’s an issue of culture. The only people who can hurt us are ourselves, by losing our culture. If we give up our Judeo-Christian culture, we become just like the Europeans.

The culture war is the whole ball game. If we lose it, there isn’t another America to pull us out.

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On The Inevitability of Monopoly

Posted August 24, 2008 By John C Wright

  

I was having a discussion about the inevitability of monopoly in a free market with my friend fpb, the esteemed and learned Mr. Barbieri. I thought it might be more efficient to place the discussion under its own thread. While I disagree with him sharply, I hope not comment of mine will be read as a criticism of him personally.

This is not the beginning of the discussion, but we might as well start here as anywhere, because his comments are not dependent on any previous comment for their support.

Mr Barbieri makes what he calls ten obvious points about monopolies:

One. There is no way to preserve an honest or unpolluted market without an above-the-parts authority, that is a State power, which has the power to regulate activities and punish transgressors.

Two. Without such an authority, agents in the market are positively encouraged to use fair and unfair means to destroy each other. That is because, in the absence of a regulating and punishing authority, aggressors enjoys a natural advantage over whoever does not initiate aggression. This sets up a perverse system of rewards for aggression.

Three. This inevitably leads to complete, tyrannical control, either by a single organized aggressor or by a group of mutually watchful ones empowered by mutual fear and the certainty that, all of them being already proven aggressors, the first to make a hostile move will be a danger to all the others. Such a group will make a particularly vicious and effective cartel.

Four. This pattern of economic activity is easily found in organized crime, which is nothing but a group of businessmen without fear of the State. Their purpose is the same as that of other businessmen – steady profit; their methods are the same – the provision of goods and services. The only difference between a mafia boss and the head of any other large company is that the mafia boss works the consequences of ignoring the law into his calculations of profit and loss and into his business planning, both long-range and day-to-day. And the mafia boss, operating without any State authority, welcomes competition like Al Capone welcomed Giuseppe Giunta, and tolerates it as well as Capone and Bugs Moran tolerated each other.

Five. While the presence of a state authority is a necessary precondition of a free market, it is not a sufficient one. The state can be neutered, penetrated, corrupted, co-opted, or scared off.

Six. Absolute power is not only inherently corrupting, it is also sought by those who are inherently corrupt. As I said, an aggressor has a natural advantage in a context of lawlessness. Lawlessness rewards the worst human instincts. Out of six tyrants, five will be natural criminals; the sixth will behave as a criminal.

Seven. The possession of a monopoly in any market, setting aside the nonsense about having a monopoly in your own goods, places a man in the position of a tyrant, a position which is inherently corrupting. Therefore it is dangerously optimistic to expect anything but tyrannical behaviour by anyone who has been placed, for whatever reason, in the position of a tyrant. Uncorrupted tyrants are statistically improbable.

Eight. Any monopoly forms an unaccountable centre of power that is inherently alternative to the State. When a man can judge and punish another man without recourse to the State, the State has a rival, which is intolerable. (Case for study: a monopolist decides to drive a supplier out of business. It does not matter whether the supplier accepts the monopolist’s prices; the point is that the monopolist will not buy from him. Perhaps the supplier has offended him, perhaps his wife has offended the monopolist’s wife. The supplier can no longer sell to anyone, and unless the State has the physical power to overcome the monopolist’s diktat and force him to buy from the blacklisted supplier, the supplier is doomed.)

Nine. For this reason, where a monopoly is inevitable, the only possible thing to do with it is to leave it in the hands of the State. The State may or may not behave tyrannically with it, but a democratic State is accountable to its citizens, while a private monopolist is accountable to nobody. What is more, that is what will happen in practice in the end. Because all businesses sooner or later go bust or need rescuing, so will this private monopoly – and faster, because monopoly breeds sloppy business habits and arrogance. Sooner or later, if the goods or services it monopolizes are indispensable, the State will have to step in to rescue it. Cf. Fannie Mae/ Freddie Mac. (Or the British nationalization of the failed train companies in 1948, or many other instances.)

Ten. What the State must never do is to take the liabilities of a failed business while allowing owners and managers to enjoy the advantages; that not only would be to put no prize on failure, but to directly subsidize inefficiency and tyranny. Failed companies MUST go to the wall, especially in the persons of owners and responsible persons. I accept that limited liability for shareholders who did not take part in management and barely knew what was going on is a good idea, but management and llarge investors MUST be exposed to the risk of failure.

I believe in the free market as a principle. A truly free market not only is an efficient way to produce goods and services, but also removes from private hands some ugly moral temptations – the temptation to aggression, the temptation to use business to gain power rather than to provide a service, the temptation to become a little god. Do you?

Let us take your points in order:

One. Government is necessary to maintain an honest market. Granted.

Two. In an anarchy, there is an incentive for violence. You smudge the term a bit by talking of market agents and using the word “unfair”, as if you mean to equate unfair trade practices (things like lowering one’s price) with acts of vandalism and violence. Nonetheless, I agree that in an anarchy, there is an incentive for violence. Granted

Three. Here is the core of the argument: that in an anarchy, the incentives favor the growth of a monopoly. Unfortunately, this is a gratuitous statement, ambiguous, and unsupported. In an anarchy, nothing is necessarily inevitable, except that the lives of those involved will be poor and nasty. It is merely gangs of desperate crooks preying on each other. It might last a short time or a long time. There is no particular reason why one man or a cabal of businessmen will come to triumph in the war of all against all, as opposed to a cabal or policemen, pirates, soldiers, sailors or, for that matter, tailors or firemen, lawyers, tinkers, or Indian chiefs. Indeed, since both soldiers and Indian chiefs have arms and a color of legitimacy, one would think them more natural candidates for the role of tyrant.  

So, then, my guess (which I would like you to confirm or deny) is that you take it as an axiom that liberty in the market is the same as total anarchy. Without this axiom, your argument makes no sense to me. I am analyzing how a free market operates, and you are talking about what happens when government breaks down. Indeed, this would seem to indicate to me that you assume the very axiom you claimed (in a previous discussion) I assumed, which is, namely, that government and marketplace are inimical and mutually exclusive.

You are not talking about the way real businesses behave in the real world: at this point, all you have done is hypothesize a Hobbesian war of all against all, and then pretended that businessmen are pirates. In real life, such anarchies diminish when one group is drawn together by law or custom or self-interest to follow a leader, renowned for his ability to keep the peace, perhaps his reputation for justice, but certainly not for his ability to sell bread or ducks or railway tickets.

No one, merely by selling railway tickets, or ducks, or bread, puts himself in a position to keep the peace, or threaten it. Political power is not market share.

So far, you have made a bald statement that, absent government, monopoly is inevitable. In a previous argument I listed several limiting factors that make monopoly not inevitable. So far, you have not answered, or even noticed, these factors. Again, we are not talking about monopolies created by a state grant of monopoly, but those that arise in a free market of a particular time, place, and circumstances allows one man or cabal of men to corner the market. I will once again remind you of the difference between a monopolist who charges a monopoly price, and one who maintains his monopoly by keeping prices low. Only in the first case is there economic inefficiency, and only in that case is there evidence that the monopoly is involuntary on the part of the customers, rather than their will and decision.

Four. You merely equate legitimate businessmen with criminals. This is not an argument that needs refuting. It is a reflection of your psychology, but not of your philosophy.

Criminals breach the peace, and seek to use any means, including violence, to gain loot. Legitimate businessmen uphold the peace and use no means aside from rational and mutually beneficial trade to gain their deserved rewards. Between someone who steals money and someone who makes money, the surface feature they have in common is that money is involved. To equate theft and production on the grounds that both involve money is superficial. 

What you mean to say is that in a black market, to the degree and in the respects that the black marketers act like legitimate businessmen, certain rules of economics apply. The cost of getting caught at smuggling contraband is part of the overhead. The difference here is that, where there is no common power to keep them all in awe, there is rampant fraud, breech of contract, and, when rival black marketers descend further into crime, violence. The argument that legitimate businesses would resort to violence to maintain their market position on the grounds that criminals, rumrunners and dope smugglers resort to violence to maintain their black market position is (a) not bourn out by the facts and (b) a violation of the formal logical rule against the excluded middle. I have listed half a dozen monopolists who did not resort to violence even when state backed coercion was used to mulct them of their honestly-earned market position (to the detriment, I must rush to add, of the customers). You have not listed a single real life counter example.

The difference between businessmen and criminals is clear enough from the behavior of the alcohol market after prohibition. The dominant beer brewers in America, Schlitz, Pabst, and so on, did not drive Al Capone out of Chicago with tommyguns. Crooks are stupid, violent people, and cannot compete with real hard working enterprise.

Five. An ineffective government cannot maintain the peace. Granted.

Six. Absolute power is inherently corrupting. If we are talking of absolute political power, I grant it. If you are using the word “power” ambiguously, I do not follow what you are saying. 

You seem to equate service in a marketplace, the ability to please customers to the point where they are not willing to maintain an alternate supplier for whatever good or service one supplies, with the ability to enforce your will on them. It is not power, except in a misleading metaphor.

Allow me to quote from Judge Learned Hand in the Alcoa antitrust case. This is a real world monopolist. He lists the ‘crimes’ for which Alcoa was to be punished:

“It was not inevitable that it (Alcoa) should always anticipate increases in the demand for ingot and be prepared to supply them. Nothing compelled it to keep doubling and redoubling its capacity before others entered the field. It insists that it never excluded competitors; but we can think of no more effective exclusion than progressively to embrace each new opportunity as it opened, and to face every new- comer with new capacity already geared into a great organization, having the advantage of experience, trade connections and the elite of personnel.”

To summarize: that for which Alcoa was penalized was their ability to anticipate consumer’s needs, to serve those needs, to have sufficient capacity to serve those needs, to embrace new opportunities (opportunities, that is, to serve its customers and supply their needs) and to have a great organization, experience, connections and personnel, all things they earned by the sweat of the brow.

That is your ‘power.’ In the free market, he who serves most is most rewarded. Now imagine what would happen if the President of Alcoa, thinking himself Tarquin the Proud, ordered his employees to kidnap a beautiful girl and bring her to his office to be ravished.

Tarquin could do this because he was the king. He was the police, the power that punishes misdeeds and keeps the peace.

The president of Alcoa, no matter how much aluminum he digs up, gains no particular ability to punish wrongdoing, command the army, gather taxes, or keep the peace. How in the world would his ability to provide aluminum to aluminum markets translate into some sort of political power?

At best, he can bribe the officers of the state to keep his competition tangled in the law, or, through tariffs, prevent his customers from leaving, but he cannot do these things without the cooperation of a corrupt and intrusive state to begin with.

Seven. As far as I can tell, this is merely a restatement of your original contention that monopolists are tyrants. One might as well say monopolists are Green Martians. You would do better to define your terms.

I urge you to look more closely at the cases you have dismissed as nonsense.

1. The first a case where the monopolized good is easily substituted for another. The example I used is one where I have a government-backed monopoly on all works of intellectual property I produce. If I raise the price of “John C. Wright” SF books, the customers will merely read books by John Scalzi or some other SF writer. I am not in a position to charge a monopoly price. To speak of me being tyrannical merely because I am a monopoly is risible.

Note that it is not ” a monopoly in my own goods” — that phrase is meaningless. All monopolies are in the goods and services owned by them.

2. The second case is one where the monopoly exists in a certain market for a certain good but not in others. International Shoe (a real antitrust case, see http://www.altlaw.org/v1/cases/400626) was between the seller of an all-leather shoe and a more fashionable shoe which contained both leather and other materials. They competed in several states in the union, but not in others. A parallel case existed with Alcoa, where it had a monopoly on aluminum foil but not on tin foil. If International Shoe restricted output in order to raise prices, it customers would buy non-leather shoes rather than leather shoes. If Alcoa restricted output of aluminum foil, customers would buy tin foil. To speak of International Shoe or Alcoa being tyrants is risible: they did not kill or silence a single man. The contrast with Caesar or Stalin, from whose hands flowed rivers of blood, could not be more marked, and yet this is the equation you are making. 

3. The third case is one where the monopoly exists in certain locations but not in others. This case by itself would be fatal to your argument. No company and no businessman, absent help from the king or parliament, has the ability to prevent its customers from shipping products from overseas, or even from immigrating. A tyrant who cannot fence in his victims with an iron curtain or a Berlin wall is not a tyrant, at least, not my the standards of the Twentieth Century, where socialist experiments resulted in the deaths of tens of millions.

You are trying to make the argument that Ronald McDonald has the same power of life and death, the same freedom from legal accountability, as Stalin or Pol Pot or Castro or Caesar or Napoleon.

4. The forth case, and the one most damaging to your argument, is where the monopoly maintains its market position by offering lower prices. For example, the American Can Corporation had a sizable market share in some states in America, but not in others. In this 1949 case, the court found that American Can held dominant market position because it “coerced” its customers into accepting long-term leases. No allegation of gangster tactics was made: the “coercion” in this case was that American Can by offered attractive terms to its customers (price discounts for large orders).  So, as a part of his final decision in the case, the judge ordered American to raise prices to its can customers so that there could be more competition with less efficient can producers and can-closing machinery makers. Consumers of cans ultimately paid for this contrived increase in “competition.”

In this final case we see the full absurdity of your contention. Not only was the dominant market position of American Can in no wise a tyranny, it was beneficial to the customers. In order to correct for this, the trustbusters, men of the same mind as Teddy Roosevelt, used the coercion of the law to inflict higher prices on the customers.

5. The fifth case is the peculiar one I mentioned above, where General Electric attempted to keep its inefficient competitors kept in the market artificially, and therefore fixed and raised prices. General Electric was, in effect, raising its prices to drive business into the hands of its competition. This practice was also condemned as an antitrust violation, and several prominent businessmen, who had done no earthly wrong, were sent to jail for it.  I cannot by any stretch of the imagination reconcile this behavior by the electrical company owners as officers with the behavior of tyrants. As far as I know, they did not hire Pinkertons to kill the judge or tamper with the jury or even threaten to blow up their own power plants.

Eight. You are again conflating the real power of the state with the metaphorical “power” of monopolists to serve their customers. The case you offer for study is not a real case: the closest real case is Tuttle v. Buck (Supreme Court of Minnesota, 1909. 107 Minn. 145, 119 N.W. 946.) In that case, a banker of wealth and influence established a barbershop for the purpose of driving the plaintiff out of business, and used his influence in the community to attract customers. The court found (a finding I regard as absurd) that the second barbershop did not exist for any legitimate purpose. In real life, all that such competition does is drive down prices. Please note that the holding in that case would have prevented entry of the banker into the barbershop business, which, on the face of it, looks like an attempt to uphold a monopoly and restrict competition.

In any case, the real example makes your hypothetical example difficult to support: the banker did not at any time form an “unaccountable center of power” that rivaled the state, nor did he “judge and punish” the man, aside from such judgments and such punishments as everybody, anybody can freely do and make in a civilized society.

You can say it is bad and unfair when a wealthy man uses his power and influence to damage a rival to whom he has taken a personal dislike, and I will agree with you whole-heartedly. I would also say it is bad and unfair for customers to boycott a business to whom they have taken a personal dislike, if their dislike is not justified: for then the customers are in the position of the wealthy man, using their influence and market power unfairly. But, taken at face value, this is an argument against private wealth, not against monopoly per se.

You have yet to overcome, or even address, the basic issue that some monopolies gain their market position by cutting prices. A monopolist is not necessarily a wealthy or influential individual. Monopolies can lose money like any other business. A worldwide monopoly in whalebone corset stays or whale oil carriage lamps would be poverty-stricken.

Nine. You then draw a conclusion unrelated to the previous argument. Even if we grant that it is bad to allow rich men to tyrannize poor men, and even if we assume all monopolists are rich men, it does not necessarily follow that free market competition inevitably results in monopolies; it does not follow that monopolies are necessarily tyrannical; it does not follow that the government is necessarily more trustworthy or more accountable than the monopolist.

Indeed, your one comment, that the Democracy is accountable to the voters, whereas the monopolist is accountable to no one, is simply false. The monopolist is accountable to his customers; and, in any case, you have not yet established that monopolists, even wealthy monopolists who have cornered the market in some indispensable good, like oil or wheat, are somehow no longer accountable to the law for crime, breech of contract, or fraud.  (Indeed, if the monopolist were above the law, as you seem to argue, this would necessarily mean they were above the antitrust laws as well).

I have not even brought up the main problem with antitrust laws, which is, that the dominant companies use the law to prevent entry by possible competition. A certain amount of corruption is to be expected when the state meddles with the market, for then the businesses have a vested interest in capturing the machinery of the state.

When I come to this sentence, I notice that you confess your argument is flawed:

“Because all businesses sooner or later go bust or need rescuing, so will this private monopoly – and faster, because monopoly breeds sloppy business habits and arrogance. Sooner or later, if the goods or services it monopolizes are indispensable, the State will have to step in to rescue it. Cf. Fannie Mae/ Freddie Mac.”

If the monopolies go bust on their own, then they are not inevitable. Indeed, you are arguing the opposite, that the breakdown of monopolies is inevitable. QED.

The instances you give of government interference in the free market would seem to bolster my case. I agree that such bailouts form an uncomfortable nexus of wealth and political power, and usurp the sovereign rights of the consumer. In effect, in a bailout, a consumer is being taxed to support a business he has already determined, by his habits of buying, not to patronize. This raises prices and encourages waste and inefficiency.

Ten. The state should not bail out failed businesses. Granted. Whether or not corporate officers should be personally liable for corporate debt is another and more difficult issue, not related to this topic. 

You close with a question:

” I believe in the free market as a principle. A truly free market not only is an efficient way to produce goods and services, but also removes from private hands some ugly moral temptations – the temptation to aggression, the temptation to use business to gain power rather than to provide a service, the temptation to become a little god. Do you?”

Yes, without reservation.

However, and more to the point, I do not believe that monopolies are inevitable, for the reasons stated and repeated above.

For reasons I have no space to go into now, I believe antitrust laws do more harm than good, and serve, in the long term, to increase inefficiency, as paradoxical as that sounds.

In sum, the Marxist argument that monopolies are the inevitable outcome of a free market is unrealistic. Marx’s argument is that large combinations are more efficient than small businesses in all cases, and that there is no countervailing tendency in the market, no efficiency in smaller businesses. Anyone who has seen a large business downsize in order to stay competitive will realize at once the simplicity and absurdity of te Marxist argument. As if it were cheaper to pipe all drinking water from one well in Mississippi through transatlantic pipes to houses in Paris, rather than sink a Parisian well. 

Mr. Barbieri’s argument, to the degree I can make it out, is a moral one rather than an economic one: he merely equates marketplace “power” with legal power, and says that the law can admit no rivals, and that absolute market power is like unchecked legal power, therefore corruptive. The statement overlooks the difference between the two; they are practically opposites. One is coercion and the other is service. It is also not on the topic as to whether monopolies are inevitable.

Monopolies are harmful to the interests of the consumer when the monopolist can charge a monopoly prices, which is, a situation where the profit is greater by decreasing supply (as when selling four units for five dollars each nets more than selling five units at three dollars each). Generally, such restriction can take place only when there is a good or service with no elasticity of demand (something like oil, for which there is no substitute) and where the good is a necessity, and when there is a high entry cost or other barrier to competition. 

Finally, the argument that one monopoly will take over the world is as fanciful as the fear that one empire will take over the world. Smaller states are constantly absorbed and overwhelmed by larger, are they not? If there is no limit to growth, why is it that the Roman Empire has no conquered every scrap of ground on Earth, including the Artic, and gone on to conquer the moon? The answer is, of course, there are limits to growth, limits to logistics, limits to economics. We live in a world of scarcity.

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APPENDIX:

I have gathered here below the beginnings of this discussion. A perusal of the whole discussion is of academic interest only, since the discussion proceeds thematically rather than logically: to my intense disappointment, Mr. Barbieri simply ignores the questions I raise and does not address the argument offer. I cannot tell if this is indifference on his part, or if he does not understand my points, or perhaps he is answering my points and I do not understand the answer.

One need not read the material below to understand the argument above, but it forms the context of the discussion, and included cases and examples I reference.

My original comment that started it all:

(Indeed, I am reminded of the Marxist daydream that says one business will eventually take over all others, buy up all land from pole to pole, and monopolize the world. Because business “inevitably” leads to monopoly, donchaknow).

Mr. Barbieri argues:

 

That business did not turn into monopoly is not due to any inborn glory of business as such, but to the anti-business activities of such persons as Theodore Roosevelt. If you want to see what happens when business is not subjected to democratic control, you should visit certain Latin American countries, where private monopoly, as I was told by a friend who had lived there (and who was not a Marxist, but a trained accountant for one of the Big Four accounting firms), can be felt in the streets. You can physically see the domination of the country’s business by a few families. And it is no coincidence that those countries are rather poorer than the average. Indeed, you can see the same in all those fields where Microsoft has eliminated competition – and started resting on its laurels. Unregulated competition leads to monopoly as inevitably as it does in organized crime – where monopoly is the natural state of things, and any competition is resisted with war; and monopoly leads to economic sluggishness and intellectual impoverishment. What preserves us from that are not the wonders of unregulated capitalism, but the rule of law and the power of democracy, as long as the democratic state did not allow a rival centre of unregulated power to assert itself.

 

My counter argument:

 

This is bad economics, and a misreading of history. Was Roosevelt did was reward certain combinations, which had successfully driven the price of certain commodities, like oil, down to the level where the middle class could afford it, with massive losses, and the sale of their assets to less efficient competitors, which ended up costing the consumer more for various goods and services than they would have otherwise paid.

Like anything else, a monopoly, when it is not artificially supported by state intervention in the market, is controlled by the law of supply and demand, which means, by the sovereign consumers. The only way to maintain a monopoly in a given market, absent such artificial supports, is by providing the customer with lower prices than would otherwise obtain. Whatever the objections are to a low-price monopoly, it is not an objection that is grounded in economics.

Now, there does from time to time rise conditions where a ‘monopoly price’ can be charged for a good: that is, when a seller can reap more profits by selling less. Obviously this is rare even in cases where one seller controls the whole supply of a good: in most cases, even if a manufacturer had total control over the supply of a good, selling five units at four dollars a piece will net him more than selling three units at five dollars a piece. And what he can charge depends on the reactions of the buyers to a price hike.

A monopoly price arises when restricting the supply raises the net profit: the good is in such high demand, that the buyers will bid the price up past its unit cost: in the example above, in order to maximize profits above selling five units at four dollars a piece, the monopolist would have to sell three units at seven dollar a piece (Otherwise, he makes more money by selling more units at a lower unit price).

Much depends on what economists call elasticity of demand. Only certain goods, necessities, are in such demand that no substitute is feasible, and buyers are not willing to do without. As a counterexample, in the famous Alcoa case, the Court determined that Alcoa had a monopoly on aluminum foil. The court did not notice, and did not care to notice, that tin foil could and was substituted by buyers driven away by the increasing costs of aluminum foil.

The other limit on monopoly price is entrance costs. Monopolies can charge monopoly prices only if other competitors are not ready and able to enter the field. Industries with large start-up costs and times, or which require cadres of skilled workers, cannot be set up overnight, and rush in to claim their own share of a high-price bonanza. That is not to say it cannot be done, but a monopoly would have to charge either a higher monopoly price or charge it over a longer period of time, to generate the kind of profit needed to tempt a newcomer into the field.

 

Obviously again, the higher the monopoly price and the longer the market is cornered, the greater the incentive for a newcomer to enter competition.

Finally, and most importantly, the invention of double-entry bookkeeping allows the costs and profits of each section or division of the industry to be assessed separately. This means that even if The World Steel Corporation sells widgets in every other town on the planet, nonetheless if the local widget shop costs more than it makes in Dead Horse, Alaska, the monopolist is under an incentive to sell the business, and the assets, to someone who can use it more efficiently, even a Mom and Pop shop.

The cost involved in communicating from Dead Horse Alaska to regional or national headquarters of World Steel Corporation is another limit to monopoly growth. The harder it is to get resources and men and information back and forth, the more profitable it becomes for local competition to displace it or buy it out, because local competition does not need to amortize for losses World Steel suffered in Burma or Patagonia.

So, to sum up, Teddy Roosevelt harmed, rather than helped, the cause of the consumers, decreased the efficiently of American business, and somehow ended up with the credit as if he had done a good thing.

Meanwhile, Standard Oil was painted as the villain, but the low cost of petroleum oil made it so the middle class (and eventually everyone) could afford kerosene lamps to light up their houses at night (this was before electrification). As a quaint side effect, Standard Oil also saved the whales from extinction, by driving down the demand for whale oil.

There is nothing inevitable about monopolies and nothing innately more efficient about monopolies. Some particular fields enjoy tremendous efficiencies of scale (railroads, telephone services, other industries requiring nigh-universal infrastructure), and they can effectively monopolize a market for many years: but a glance at the fate of railroad stock in the postwar era shows that even very well positioned ‘natural monopolies’ cannot long afford to sell above the natural market price.

The free market is democracy, and democracy is the free market. You cannot have one without the other. To speak of the democracy opposing and preventing the free market from gaining power is to speak in paradox.

 

 

Mr. Barbieri writes in reply:

You talk like someone who is entirely outside of reality. Your arguments break down on human nature: namely, that anyone who effectively has a monopoly on anything will not let it go without force, and will rather ruin the country than lose position. It is as simple as that. A monopolist is a tyrant, and as Aristotle said, men do not become tyrants in order to keep warm. History proves it again and again. Businessmen can and will use the methods of gangsters to get rid of competitors; and gangsters, for that matter, are only businessmen who are not afraid of the State. And the only power that can prevent a monopoly, just as easily as it can create one, is the State

I answer again:

“Your arguments break down on human nature: namely, that anyone who effectively has a monopoly on anything will not let it go without force, and will rather ruin the country than lose position.”

Part of human nature is not to throw good money after bad. Companies downsize and retreat from markets as a fairly common business practice, including monopolies.

If by ‘force’ you mean that companies, rather than pull out of a market where they are losing money, will hire Pinkertons to go in and rough up the competition, buy a private army, and overthrow the king? Hm.

Seriously: how often has that happened? I can think of examples in my country where businessmen hired Pinkertons to break up gangerist strikes, but I have not read example where they sent gangs to burn out the competition. The peaceful nature of the beer trade after prohibition was lifted is an interesting case history: the gangsters who had made so much money rumrunning now could not compete with peaceful breweries.

Businesses resorting to force to retain their monopolies has not happened in America to my knowledge, even when General Electric was hounded by Anti-Trust lawsuit that were particularly shameful.

Indeed, as far as I know, the ten year long anti-trust suit involving IBM in the 1980’s never once provoked IBM to order their helicopter antisubmarine warfare avionics division to open fire on the Courthouse in White Plains, New York.

I do not recall that Bill Gates shot anyone any Netscape when they sued him. (Oddly enough, I would agree that Netscape resorted to coercion when their product was losing in the free market, but I suspect that is not an example that lends itself to your arguments.)

Why should the stockholders permit a monopolist to retain his market share by force when he is losing money?

“Businessmen can and will use the methods of gangsters to get rid of competitors”

Which would seem to be an argument for strict enforcement of laws against violence, but it has no necessary connection to our argument about the inevitability of monopolies.

You forget that you are trying to argue that there is an innate efficiency to monopolies in the market, which will “inevitably” prevent entry into the market of competition. Unfortunately, you have not bothered to make that argument, so there is nothing here for me to answer.

“And the only power that can prevent a monopoly, just as easily as it can create one, is the State.”

Actually, all the state can do is by law prevent competition with a monopoly. If the consumers do not patronize it, there is not much the state can do in the long run.

The state can subsidize an failing monopoly through tax revenues to some other form of corporate welfare, I suppose, but, should they do that, the argument (which you have not yet made) that the monopoly is innately more efficient and therefore innately competitively superior to non-monopolies would then defeat itself.

The one power that allows a monopoly to remain in its position as the most efficient servant of the consumers is the consumers. In a free market, they are sovereign.

So far, you have not offered even a single argument to show that monopolies are inevitable; or that they are bad; or that, if inevitable and bad, that the bad outweighs the good.

Do you object to monopolies that lower the cost of the good monopolized to the consumer, or that maintain their market share by keeping the cost low?

Why do you trust the officials of the State over the private businessman when it comes to protecting the people from exploitation and unpleasantness? If men (no less the sons of fallen Adam than Rich Uncle Pennybags) go into the bureaucracy rather than into business, what prevents the evil incumbent on wealthy businessmen from descending on wealthy Senators?

A businessman stands for reelection every time I decide to buy to not to buy his product. A politician only stands for re-election either at fixed times or when facing a vote of no confidence. A king does not stand for re-election at all. Why trust the State over Standard Oil?

At first glance, it looks like John D. Rockefeller is on a shorter leash than Theodore Roosevelt.

I continued the argument in another thread:

I repeat to you what we were discussing. I said that the idea that the free market inevitably tends to monopoly is a Marxist myth. You replied that a democratic government should and must restrict the growth of monopolies. In this context, I assumed you were offering this as an argument to support the idea that monopolies are inevitable in a free market (for if not, the comment, while interesting, is irrelevant). So to counter, I offered an important distinction between times when a monopoly is undesirable as opposed to harmless (the presence or absence of a monopoly price) and mentioned several natural checks on the growth of monopolies. Albeit not explicitly stated, my argument there was that, where these checks are present, monopoly growth is curtailed even without the intervention of anti-trust laws or similar state intervention. You replied that my remarks betrayed a naivety about human nature, since businessmen will often resort to violence to maintain their market share, and that gangsters are merely business unafraid of the state.

So, then: I offered an argument grounded in the science of economics, defining my terms and offering a number of nuanced statements, and you rebutted with a simplistic irrelevancy. At that point the conversation languished. I offered three examples of monopolists (not what an economist would call a monopolist, but what a court of law would call a monopolist–the two are by no means the same) who did indeed allow themselves to be divested (in my opinion, grossly unfairly) of their market share. If you are curious, I can also describe to you the grotesque miscarriages of justice that typified the antitrust cases against General Electric and Alcoa. In none of these cases did the monopolists resort to violence.

But even if contrary cases could be found, say, in the bloody history of South America, or the British cruelties against the Irish, it would not confirm nor invalidate the original argument, which was about the inevitability of monopolies.

Indeed, I will use the example you mentioned: in the rumrunning trade during Prohibition, no one supplier of rum gains a monopoly, not even Al Capone, not even after competitors were gunned down in the St. Valentine’s Day Massacre. While I have severe reservations about equating the actions of smugglers with the behavior of an ordinary businessman in a civilized nation in the free market (for one thing, certain transaction costs are lowered due to an expectation of repeat business),nonetheless, even if we take rumrunners as our model, the ‘inevitable’ dominance of a monopoly does not seem to be present. Al Capone did not control the statewide nor the national market, nor was he in a position to stop customers from seeking substitute goods when he raised his prices.

Marx’s error was that he concluded from the mere fact that some businesses had economies of scale, that all business did, and that the economies continue at any scale whatsoever: this is manifestly false.

To which this was the reply:

First: economics is not a science, but a branch of group psychology. And psychology is not a science. Aside from Popper’s famous argument, there is mine, which runs as follows: science happens when the subject reflects on things outside itself. When the subject is the object of its own reflection, you have, not science, but history – or human studies of some sort – or psychology. You talk as though you could have an economics without reference to human psychology. I tell you that I will believe that when I believe in square triangles and dry water. Anyone who ends up in a situation of monopoly, for whatever reason, ends up in a situation of tyranny. That is a question of human psychology, not to mention morality, not of numbers. From beginning to end, you do not want to engage with this. And you do not want because of a number of absurd preconceptions which you have no intention of examining – for instance, that the free market and the State are somehow inimical to each other. To the contrary, as I have said again and again, it is monopoly and the State that are naturally inimical; either because a commercial monopoly is naturally corrupting (study the interrelationship of FIAT and the Italian State until recent times, for instance), tending to break rules and to create an alternative area of sovereignty to the State, which ought to be the only sovereign body. When laws are written and State interventions decided in Turin rather than Rome, democracy and sovereignty are impaired. Conversely, only the State can guarantee a free market. Only the State can prevent crime, break down organized bands and gangs, make and certify sound money, legalize and enforce contracts, punish transgressors, pursue or legitimate the pursuit of defaulting debtors, define, pursue and punish fraud, and guarantee the certainty of private property. Without State guarantee, none of these things are worth a damn; and therefore, without State guarantee, there cannot be a free market. Of course, that the state should and must do all of these things does not guarantee that the state will do them; the state is made of human beings, like businesses of every kind, like the churches and any other kind of association.

Everything you spoke of was special pleading. I repeat: anyone who is in a position of monopoly is in a position of tyranny. And that is not only towards his custormers, but also towards his suppliers: ask any British food producer what they think of Tesco’s and Sainsbury’s – off camera and off the record, of course. The United States fought the bloodiest war in their history to put an end to the group monopoly of the labour market in certain federal states. I wholly approve of that.

Finally: if there is any sector of the economy where a monopoly is inevitable (as for instance in such closed systems as railway transports) or where competition positively reduces efficiency and profitability (as in the post), those sectors should be nationalized. What should never be done is what the Americans did with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, that is to guarantee private companies from failure, thus leaving them all the instruments of corruption and the State, far from its legitimate role as judge and jury, to be their backer.

Incidentally, the definition of public expenditure as covering all those areas where the private sector cannot operate efficiently and which are nevertheless necessary to the community belongs to Adam Smith. Read the fifth book of “Wealth of Nations”.

And again I answer:

“First: economics is not a science, but a branch of group psychology.”

Naturally, you may define your terms in any fashion that suits you. We may call economics a “study” if you wish.

The study of economics makes certain minimal assumptions about human action, such as, for example, that everything else being equal, a person will prefer the same good for less than for more (which is not always the cases–see, for example, Pet Rocks, which were indistinguishable from ordinary rocks. There are a particular class of luxury goods where a higher price generates more sales than lower: this is a rare case, however.)

In reality, economics is the precise opposite of psychology, since the psychology of the buyers and sellers is the one thing taken as a given, never explained nor taken into account. An economist can say that if two people want good X, then their mutual bidding might drive up the price of X, but he cannot, in his capacity as an economist, say why those two want good X.

“You talk as though you could have an economics without reference to human psychology.”

This comment is neither here nor there. This is not something I said, nor implied. And if I had or had not said or implied this, it would make no difference to the discussion at hand, which is about the inevitability of monopolies. If you are talking about a different topic, please indicate to me what is your topic, and what you mean to prove.

What is it that you think economics actually studies? What do you make, for example, of Ricardo’s law of comparative advantage, or the law of supply and demand? Are these example of “group psychology”? Could the behavior we see in the market place that the law of supply and demand be altered by some custom or law that influenced the group psychology involved?

“Anyone who ends up in a situation of monopoly, for whatever reason, ends up in a situation of tyranny. That is a question of human psychology, not to mention morality, not of numbers.”

It might be easier if you defined your terms. Taken literally, I have a “monopoly” on all books written by John C. Wright, and no one may copy my works without my permission, or else face government sanction. Am I a tyrant?

What about a pet store who sells ducks in Dead Horse, Alaska; if the only other pet store in town closes its doors, then the first pet store is a monopoly, even though it may be unaware of the other store’s closure. Where does the psychology of a tyrant come into play in this case?

One of the cases I studied in law school involved a manufacturer who sought to give business to his competition, in order to prevent the competition from failing, so as to not run afoul of the antitrust laws. He coordinated his price with the inefficient competition, and was successfully sued by the government for violations of the antitrust laws. Where does the psychology of a tyrant come into play in this case?

Can you give me your reason why you have come to the conclusion that all monopolists are tyrants? Can you define your term ‘tyrant’ so that I can know you are not merely indulging in a rhetorical flourish, please?

“From beginning to end, you do not want to engage with this.”

Because you have said nothing meaningful on the topic. Your comments so far are both irreverent and gratuitous. Irrelevant, because even if all monopolists were tyrants, it would have no bearing on the question whether or no monopoly is inevitable, or inevitable absent state intervention. Gratuitous, because you have offered me no warrant to agree with your conclusions. (I cannot take your word as an authority, because antitrust law is an area I have studied, and you have not.)

“And you do not want because of a number of absurd preconceptions which you have no intention of examining …”

I merely note once again that you belittle me, and call into question my integrity as a philosopher. I again turn the other cheek, and again do not answer you as honor says I ought. I forgive you.

“- for instance, that the free market and the State are somehow inimical to each other.”

This statement is irrelevant, and false. Nothing in the argument I have given so far depends on such an axiom, nor is it one I hold, nor does influence the argument one way or the other. It would be better for you to ask me what I think, or quote me, rather than speculate on what I think when you are talking to me myself.

Obviously trade is severely limited where there is no government ready to revenge acts of fraud and breech of contract. Some laws encourage the growth of the wealth of nations, others discourage it. There are economic consequences, for example, to passing realty by fee simple or by fee entailed. Since I am aware of these consequences, it makes no sense for you to say that (1) I am not aware of them or (2) that I am unwilling to examine them. Much depends on the particular state or the laws involved.

What I think you mean to say is that I do not believe the state, in and of itself, can generate wealth. At best, it can redistribute wealth. That, at least, would be an argument worth having. Of course, what I actually believe is more nuanced than that (since I believe laws like the UCC, the Uniform Commercial Code, greatly aid in the generation of wealth, for example). BUT yet again, your comment is irrelevant, because it has no bearing on the topic, which is, I remind you yet again, whether monopolies are inevitable.

“To the contrary, as I have said again and again, it is monopoly and the State that are naturally inimical; either because a commercial monopoly is naturally corrupting (study the interrelationship of FIAT and the Italian State until recent times, for instance), tending to break rules and to create an alternative area of sovereignty to the State, which ought to be the only sovereign body.”

Aha! At last, an argument. Give your example in some detail, please. What do you mean by “alternative area of sovereignty”? That was not the case with Standard Oil, General Electric, Microsoft, or International Shoe.

“Only the State can prevent crime, break down organized bands and gangs, make and certify sound money, legalize and enforce contracts, punish transgressors, pursue or legitimate the pursuit of defaulting debtors, define, pursue and punish fraud, and guarantee the certainty of private property.”

I agree with this statement, with the possible exception of making sound money. History would seem to indicate the opposite [state intervention inflates currency, interferes with the credit cycle, creates depression]. I still see no relevance to the topic.

“Everything you spoke of was special pleading.”

I am not sure you know what this means. I spoke of some of the limiting factors surrounding monopoly. I did not conclude that monopolies cannot arise. I merely argued that they were not inevitable. I did not conclude that they are not malevolent: indeed, I specifies certain cases where they are not. The case where a monopolist charges a monopoly price introduces inefficiencies into the market.

Please repeat back to me exactly what you think we are arguing about, so that I can be sure we are discussing the same topic.

“Finally: if there is any sector of the economy where a monopoly is inevitable (as for instance in such closed systems as railway transports) or where competition positively reduces efficiency and profitability (as in the post), those sectors should be nationalized. “

Why?

“Incidentally, the definition of public expenditure as covering all those areas where the private sector cannot operate efficiently and which are nevertheless necessary to the community belongs to Adam Smith. Read the fifth book of “Wealth of Nations”.”

Rest assured, I have read and reread Adam Smith’s WEALTH OF NATIONS. Whether or not Freddie Mac of public railroads falls under the Smithian definition is open to debate. See, for example, his condemnation of the public ownership of school and toll roads.

You do understand, do you not, that this response does not refute, or even address a single point I raised. Did you even read what I wrote?

 

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Unified Field Theory of Modern Liberalism

Posted August 18, 2008 By John C Wright

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eaE98w1KZ-c
If you are patient enough, o ye children of the Internet age, to hear to the whole thing, you will see how and why this theory explains the facts. Modern liberals are not stupid, so it cannot be simply that they know not what they do; neither are the evil in their personal lives, so it cannot be that they always prefer evil over good for the sake of evil.
Since they are not stupid and not depraved, what is the answer to the conundrum: why the modern liberal always prefers evil to good, ugly to beautiful, and self-indulgence (to the point of self-destruction) to self-discipline?

Evan Sayet presents his unified theory to explain this oddity.

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Spike Jones – – Schiklegruber

Posted August 16, 2008 By John C Wright

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Su-LtukGFK4
Can you imagine what would happen if someone made fun of our current enemies as our forefathers made fun of theirs?

In their day, we could mock Il Duce as an organ-grinder, and portray Hitler as a monkey, but no one can find anything funny about the Terror Masters.

You have to be brave to be funny, I guess. No guts, no gaiety.

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Albino Jesuit Assassins … IN SPAAACE!

Posted August 14, 2008 By John C Wright
The Vatican’s chief astronomer has said that belief in aliens is not at variance with Christianity and that any extra terrestrials would form “part of God’s Creation”.
 
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/faith/article3926487.ece
 
A certain Mr. Tom Flynn writing on the pages for the Council for Secular Humanism (http://www.secularhumanism.org/) does a weird mental backflip. He “reads between the lines” of this article in order to conclude that, in fact, belief in aliens is in variance with Christianity, and that the Pope and his henchmen are trying to do proactive damage control, so the Church will not be embarrassed when real little green men are discovered on Mars, as she was allegedly embarrassed by the discovery of the New World (what the ancients called the “Perioeci”).

Here is the link: http://www.secularhumanism.org/index.php?section=library&page=flynn_28_5_1

 
Digression: Let me explain that obscure reference. The First Century Greeks knew the dimensions of the world from the experiments of Eratosthenes, and calculated that their known oecumene (The word refers to the “House” or inhabitation of mankind, and from it we get our words for economics and ecumenicalism. The ancient Oecumene included Europe, North Africa, and the Near East as far as India) would cover a fourth of that area. They loved the idea of moderation, and therefore supposed the temperate zone was between two uninhabitable extremes: a world of uninhabitable ice as one went north, and a zone of uninhabitable fire as one went south. But, knowing the world was globular, they also speculated that there was a second temperate zone, forever separated from us by the burning and uninhabitable regions of the equator.
 
They also speculated that there were other continents equally placed in the unexplored hemispheres: a Perioeci which rested (as the name suggests) alongside the oecumene in the northern temperate zone, but in an unimaginable Western Hemisphere; an Antioeci (as the name suggests) opposite the Oecumene but in the eastern hemisphere but in the southern temperate zone, and a land directly opposite our feet, called the Antipodes (as the name suggests), in the southern temperate zone, western hemisphere — still a nickname for Australia. This was the spot where Dante placed his Mount Purgatory in his DIVINE COMEDY, directly opposite Jerusalem. 
 
I merely note that the learned scholars of the Church (since they preserved the writings of Eratosthenes and Ptolemy and Crates, and studied them in Universities–a Christian institution) might not have been as shocked by the discovery of the New World as Mr. Flynn suggests. That the Bible does not mention the Indians of America is no more shocking to the Europeans than the discovery that the Bible does not mention the Indians of India, even though St. Thomas (according to tradition) traveled there, preached, and baptized. End of digression.
 
Mr. Flynn goes on to speculates that
 
“.. I think the Vatican’s fascination with astronomy, and its new insistence that its teachings will not be threatened if a genuine ETI (Extraterrestrial Intelligence) turns up, amounts to an exercise in anticipatory damage control. Here’s my best guess: The next time humanity learns (in Carl Sagan’s phrase) that “the universe is much bigger than our prophets said,” Vatican strategists aim to be among the religious leaders who can give the world a thumbs-up and say, “Oh yeah, we were on this all along.”
 
Um. Riiiiiiiiiight. It is all a conspiracy by the Pope!
 
“Reading between the lines” is what debaters call “the Straw Man argument.” The Straw Man argument is the simple trick of attributing to your opponent something he did not say, and perhaps did not even imply, and criticizing that.
 
Since you get to stuff the straw man any way you want, of course, you can criticize whatever you take a fancy in your head to criticize. As long as you are putting words into your opponent’s mouth, you might as well put words as transparently silly or as obscurely sinister as possible.
 
In this case, the sinister aspect seems to be that the Church would shield herself from criticism by (wait for it!) adopting a position in harmony with what she believes and has always taught. Though the question then becomes: why bother?
 
Why bother? What Mr. Flynn seems not to notice is that he is talking about an institution that forthrightly states (and holds it as a doctrine that binds the conscience of the believer to believe!) that man, by his unaided reason, can come to deduce the existence of God. In other words, we Catholics take it as an article of faith that Man’s reason is sufficient to confirm an Ontological Argument, or Argument from Design, or some such.
 
If the Church makes a brazen balls-out statement like that, why would she shy away from having the Pope himself declare that the existence of otherworldly life is no threat to Christian faith, rather than sneak the comment into the world through some back channel?
 
It is not as if Christians are all that quiet, shy, or reticent about what we believe. We’ve discovered the secret of eternal life, for Christ’s Sake! We want everyone to know what we believe, and we even send missionaries to the Antipodes (see above) or to India (see above) to get the message out. Every single Christians is under a positive duty to spread the Gospel to all living creatures (including the sharks trailing in the wake of the Pequod, I suppose).
 
Mr. Flynn needs to read some more detective novels to broaden his education: Father Brown could tell him that
 
It really is more natural to believe a preternatural story, that
deals with things we don’t understand, than a natural story that
contradicts things we do understand. Tell me that the great Mr
Gladstone, in his last hours, was haunted by the ghost of Parnell, and I
will be agnostic about it. But tell me that Mr Gladstone, when first
presented to Queen Victoria, wore his hat in her drawing-room and
slapped her on the back and offered her a cigar, and I am not agnostic
at all. That is not impossible; it’s only incredible. But I’m much more
certain it didn’t happen than that Parnell’s ghost didn’t appear;
because it violates the laws of the world I do understand.
 
The only problem with the conspiracy theory that the Pope is secretly prodding the Vatican Observatory to defuse the potential time bomb of the discovery of Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence by making public pronouncements now, is… that this is simply not the way the Church has ever acted. It violates the laws of the world I do understand.
 
Three observations must be made on the psychology of atheism to understand why Mr. Flynn’s speculations seem reasonable to him.
 
The first is that atheists view the rest of the world with a combination of bafflement and scorn which naturally lends itself, if not to paranoia, at least to a suspension of skepticism about how their fellow men act.
 
The atheist, from his point of view, lives in a world of lunatics, some violent, some gentle, all of whom believe in Santa Clause or flying unicorns. These lunatics seem like normal people who go to baseball games and vote for school board meetings and watch the telly, but then on the topic of the flying unicorns, they get this glassy stare in their eye, and tell you that the flying unicorns have told them the secret of eternal life (see above), and that Santa Clause will not fill their stockings if they have sex out of wedlock or eat pork on Friday or something.
 
An atheist defies the entire history and experience of the world when he rejects religion, the one universal of all human cultures. He thinks he is smarter than men like Newton and Copernicus and Thomas Aquinas and Pascal and Descartes, or, at least, the atheist thinks that he has a clearer insight on the issue of religion than these men had, despite their evident brilliance as scientists, philosophers and men of letters.
 
I am not saying all atheists are conspiracy theorists: but I am saying all atheists must either believe, or entertain the belief, that some fundamental aberration of human thought afflicts all the human race, even the wisest. Only he and his small coterie of “Brights” are immune.
 
So, if you are an atheist, you are willing and prone to believe human beings, even smart ones, do dumb and irrational acts and believe dumb and irrational beliefs for no reason.
 
The “Brights” are simply willing to believe unbelievable things about the “Dims”, including the idea that the Pope is attempting to defuse a debate yet to take place centuries from now, not because the Pope thinks Christians should believe Christian doctrine, but simply because the Pope does not want the Church to lose face when the starships from planet Vulcan touch down.
 
Second, at least some atheists cannot truly believe that there are theists. (I have also met theists who do not deep down really believe that there are atheists). No matter what their heads tells them, in their hearts they think the opposition actually knows its own error, and is ashamed of it, and is taking steps to hide it.
 
Hence, Mr. Flynn does not speak of whether the existence of extraterrestrial life actually is contrary to Church teaching, nor does he speak of what Christians must believe in order to be true to Christian teaching. He seems merely to assume (and now it is I who am reading between the lines) that the Church is concerned more with saving face than with remaining true to our eternal truths in changing times. He seems to assume we act like people who know we are wrong and take steps to hide it, not like we are people who know more science than he does and that we might have an understandable curiosity about how the various fields of knowledge, that revealed by science and that revealed by revelation, fit together. 
 
Third, the tone of his article is only understandable if the reader assumes that the Catholics are frightened of the findings of science. To a reader not making that assumption, the tone of the article comes across as tone-deaf.
 
Since he himself mentions that the Vatican Observatory was founded in 1582 (Pope Gregory XIII asked Jesuit mathematician Christopher Clavius to help reform the calendar), Mr. Flynn cannot support the idea that “The Vatican’s fascination with astronomy” is new or recent. Indeed, since the Vatican Observatory is the oldest in the world, if would be more fair to say that the Church invented modern astronomy, and that the secularists are johnny-come-latelies riding the coat-tails of their Christian predecessors, men like Copernicus, Galileo, and Newton.
 
One final wry observation: Mr. Flynn takes the time to quote with approval one Jill Tarter. She says this:
 
“If we get a message (from a superior culture) and it’s secular in nature, I think that says that they have no organized religion—that they’ve outgrown it.”
 
This type of casual arrogance is typical of the Brights.

Speaking as someone who outgrew his own atheism, and as someone who lived through the fall of the Berlin Wall, when the adolescent belief-system called Communism collapsed under its own logical absurdities, and as someone who saw the flourishing of religion in Poland, as that nation grew, developed and evolved out of the backward barbarism of the primitive Communist thinking and into the civilized and ecumenical thinking characterized by Christianity, I have the most sincere doubts, nay, I meet with gales of laughter, the idea that signals from the Morlocks of Outer Space will show that evolution and progress always points in the direction of increasing spiritual ignorance.

 
The Morlocks, for those of you who do not catch the reference, in the romance of H.G. Wells, are the cannibal troglodytes of A.D. 802701. The vile beasties have the honor of being evolved from the descendants of modern man, the peak of progress. The are the posthumans; the supermen. Nietzsche and Marx and every other believer that human evolution necessarily means progress rather than regress or retardation, is well advised to read Darwin and to contemplate the hungry Morlock.    
 
By no coincidence, I wrote an article for the Catholic Herald of the United Kingdom, prompted by my own thoughts and speculations about Father Jose Gabriel Funes comment (speculations no more grounded than reality than Mr. Flynn’s, I suspect; but then again, I am a science fiction writer, so I am allowed). 

Here is the link:

 
 
Here is a quote:
 
Men can indeed lose their faith through a loss of imagination. Many are lost to the faith, merely because the modern and scientific view of the world leaves no room in their imagination for God. The heavens are filled with stars and nebulae, quasars and radio stars, gas giants and black holes, and roaring x-ray sources. Where are the saints and angels? Where are the pearly gates, the streets of gold, and the tree of life?
 
It is not a logical argument, but instead an inability to look behind the tapestry of facts and speculations making up the naturalistic and scientific image of the universe, its appalling size and emptiness, the appalling cruelty and waste of the random Darwinian process of evolution, and to see the Hand of God weaving that tapestry.
 
[…]
 
Yet some writers see this question of extraterrestrial intelligence as a severe challenge to Christianity, even fatal. Bertram Russell, for example, in “The Theologian’s Nightmare” (from Fact and Fiction, 1961) has a pious man in a dream reach the afterworld only to discover, in despair, that the learned but alien librarians there can find no record of the Milky Way galaxy, much less the Solar System or the Earth – in the cosmic scheme of things, the Milky Way is simply too small to come to the notice of Heaven. The inconspicuous motes, called planets, circling one tiny sun out of billions are not of any note, nor are the parasitic mites occupying the surface of one of the smaller ones.
 
Russell proposes that the universe is so wide that man’s pretension that his life, his actions, or indeed his whole world occupies any significance must be dashed. We are less than one grain of sand on the shores of the blind and numberless stars. Herbert Spencer and H G Wells voice the same thought: modern science proves the cosmos is too big for man to be in the eye of God. Man is too small compared to the universe.
 
Other writers are not so worried. Russell’s conceit is dismissed with a smile by G K Chesterton, who remarks: “It is quite futile to argue that man is small compared to the cosmos; for man was always small compared to the nearest tree.” (Orthodoxy, 1908)
 
[…]
 
In any case, imagining that God selected a lowly stable for His cradle is no harder and no different than imagining God selected a lowly world for His cradle; the difference is only in the magnitude of what one’s imagination can grasp.
 
Indeed, the larger and older the cosmos seems to get as modern science tells us more of its weird secrets, the larger and grander must, to the Christian imagination, seem the maker of all this glory.
 
The width of the cosmos, the age and majesty of worlds larger than Earth, and stars larger than Sol, the mind-numbing numberlessness of galaxies and clusters of galaxies and superclusters of clusters, the titanic immensities of time, the birth and death of young suns and old ones, all these things, unfortunately, can be used by the agnostic imagination to paint our local and tribal gods with the colors of parochial absurdity; but by the same token, all these things can be used by the healthy Christian imagination as a type or shadow to contemplate the majesty, the infinity, and the immensity of a Supreme Being greater and more gracious than any imagination can reach.
 
Astronomy is useful to show a Christian what it might mean to meet with glory astronomically grander than anything on Earth.
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The Vindication of Humanae Vitae by Mary Eberstadt

Posted August 12, 2008 By John C Wright

A while back, I mentioned in this space my conclusion that the sexual revolution was an unmitigated disaster for the West, particularly for the poor among us. Now, this was something of a sore point with me, since I had been born and raised as a card-carrying member of the sexual revolution: all the scorn and smugness you can read in the pages of Robert Heinlein and Ayn Rand against the institution of marriage, and the impertinent dogma that any number of people in any combination of sexes can and should fornicate with each other, or with the family dog, in any way shape or form as they should see fit, provided only that all consent and that no one is harmed, used to dribble from my lips. I was in perfect lockstep with the other non-conformists, who all talked and spoke and thought the same way. Marriage and fatherhood eroded those juvenile notions from my head, and once the logic of Stoicism is followed to its logical conclusion, I found myself in a position almost indistinguishable from Christianity, the exact contrary of my former view.

Nonetheless, I am naive enough that I thought a condemnation of the sexual revolution was not a controversial position. I thought the evils that spring from the national and cultural habits of admiring vice and eschewing virtue were obvious, even to the oblivious. But no: strong contrary arguments are still being made.

Entering the lists is Mary Eberstadt’s article in FIRST THINGS. She has taken the time to list a number of empiric sources to support the conclusion that the sexual revolution was a disaster. While I do not place so very much stock in the findings of “sociologists”, I offer this here for the sake of those that do. Here are several paragraphs from this article:

Let’s begin by meditating upon what might be called the first of the secular ironies now evident: Humanae Vitae’s specific predictions about what the world would look like if artificial contraception became widespread. The encyclical warned of four resulting trends: a general lowering of moral standards throughout society; a rise in infidelity; a lessening of respect for women by men; and the coercive use of reproductive technologies by governments.

In the years since Humanae Vitae’s appearance, numerous distinguished Catholic thinkers have argued, using a variety of evidence, that each of these predictions has been borne out by the social facts. One thinks, for example, of Monsignor George A. Kelly in his 1978 “Bitter Pill the Catholic Community Swallowed” and of the many contributions of Janet E. Smith, including Humanae Vitae: A Generation Later and the edited volume Why Humanae Vitae Was Right: A Reader.

And therein lies an irony within an irony. Although it is largely Catholic thinkers who have connected the latest empirical evidence to the defense of Humanae Vitae’s predictions, during those same forty years most of the experts actually producing the empirical evidence have been social scientists operating in the secular realm. As sociologist W. Bradford Wilcox emphasized in a 2005 essay: “The leading scholars who have tackled these topics are not Christians, and most of them are not political or social conservatives. They are, rather, honest social scientists willing to follow the data wherever it may lead.”

Consider, as Wilcox does, the Nobel Prize-winning economist George Akerlof. In a well-known 1996 article in the Quarterly Journal of Economics, Akerlof explained in the language of modern economics why the sexual revolution—contrary to common prediction, especially prediction by those in and out of the Church who wanted the teaching on birth control changed—had led to an increase in both illegitimacy and abortion. In another work published in the Economic Journal ten years ago, he traced the empirical connections between the decrease in marriage and married fatherhood for men—both clear consequences of the contraceptive revolution—and the simultaneous increase in behaviors to which single men appear more prone: substance abuse, incarceration, and arrests, to name just three.

Along the way, Akerlof found a strong connection between the diminishment of marriage on the one hand and the rise in poverty and social pathology on the other. He explained his findings in nontechnical terms in Slate magazine: “Although doubt will always remain about what causes a change in social custom, the technology-shock theory does fit the facts. The new reproductive technology was adopted quickly, and on a massive scale. Marital and fertility patterns changed with similar drama, at about the same time.”

To these examples of secular social science confirming what Catholic thinkers had predicted, one might add many more demonstrating the negative effects on children and society. The groundbreaking work that Daniel Patrick Moynihan did in 1965, on the black family, is an example—along with the critical research of psychologist Judith Wallerstein over several decades on the impact of divorce on children; Barbara Dafoe Whitehead’s well-known work on the outcomes of single parenthood for children; Sara McLanahan and Gary Sandefur’s seminal book, Growing Up with a Single Parent; and David Blankenhorn’s Fatherless America, another lengthy summarization of the bad empirical news about family breakup.

Numerous other books followed this path of analyzing the benefits of marriage, including James Q. Wilson’s The Marriage Problem, Linda Waite and Maggie Gallagher’s The Case for Marriage, Kay Hymowitz’s Marriage and Caste in America, and Elizabeth Marquardt’s recent Between Two Worlds: The Inner Lives of Children of Divorce. To this list could be added many more examples of how the data have grown and grown to support the proposition that the sexual revolution has been resulting in disaster for large swaths of the country—a proposition further honed by whole decades of examination of the relation between public welfare and family dysfunction (particularly in the pages of the decidedly not-Catholic Public Interest magazine). Still other seminal works have observed that private actions, notably post-revolution sexual habits, were having massive public consequences; Charles Murray’s Losing Ground and Francis Fukuyama’s The Great Disruption come especially to mind.

All this is to say that, beginning just before the appearance of Humanae Vitae, an academic and intellectual rethinking began that can no longer be ignored—one whose accumulation of empirical evidence points to the deleterious effects of the sexual revolution on many adults and children. And even in the occasional effort to draw a happy face on current trends, there is no glossing over what are still historically high rates of family breakup and unwed motherhood. For example, in “Crime, Drugs, Welfare—and Other Good News,” a recent and somewhat contrarian article in Commentary, Peter Wehner and Yuval Levin applauded the fact that various measures of social disaster and dysfunction seem to be improving from previous lows, including, among others, violent crime and property crime, and teen alcohol and tobacco use. Even they had to note that “some of the most vital social indicators of all—those regarding the condition and strength of the American family—have so far refused to turn upward.”

In sum, although a few apologists such as Stephanie Coontz still insist otherwise, just about everyone else in possession of the evidence acknowledges that the sexual revolution has weakened family ties, and that family ties (the presence of a biologically related mother and father in the home) have turned out to be important indicators of child well-being—and more, that the broken home is not just a problem for individuals but also for society. Some scholars, moreover, further link these problems to the contraceptive revolution itself.

Consider the work of maverick sociobiologist Lionel Tiger. Hardly a cat’s-paw of the pope—he describes religion as “a toxic issue”—Tiger has repeatedly emphasized the centrality of the sexual revolution to today’s unique problems. The Decline of Males, his 1999 book, was particularly controversial among feminists for its argument that female contraceptives had altered the balance between the sexes in disturbing new ways (especially by taking from men any say in whether they could have children).

Equally eyebrow-raising is his linking of contraception to the breakdown of families, female impoverishment, trouble in the relationship between the sexes, and single motherhood. Tiger has further argued—as Humanae Vitae did not explicitly, though other works of Catholic theology have—for a causal link between contraception and abortion, stating outright that “with effective contraception controlled by women, there are still more abortions than ever. . . . Contraception causes abortion.”

Who could deny that the predictions of Humanae Vitae and, by extension, of Catholic moral theology have been ratified with data and arguments that did not even exist in 1968? But now comes the question that just keeps on giving. Has this dramatic reappraisal of the empirically known universe led to any secular reappraisals, however grudging, that Paul VI may have gotten something right after all? The answer is manifestly that it has not. And this is only the beginning of the dissonance that surrounds us in 2008.

http://www.firstthings.com/article.php3?id_article=6262

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Interview!

Posted August 8, 2008 By John C Wright

Isaac Wilcott, who maintains Icshi  the largest and best Van Vogt information site I’ve come across, interviewed me on NULL-A CONTINUUM. It is a long interview, and you’d have to be a real fan of Van to catch all the references. It was a pleasure talking with another fan well-read in Van Vogt.

http://home.earthlink.net/~icshi/Interviews/wright.html

Isaac Wilcott:

What was the most challenging thing about writing NULL-A CONTINUUM?

John C. Wright: 

The greatest challenge was the negotiations between the publisher and the estate of van Vogt to get the permission to write it. Indeed, the manuscript was written long before the negotiations were complete. I will not bore you with the details of the legalisms; but I am thankful for the patience shown by all parties involved.

That is not a fair answer to your question. The answer is I had no difficult in writing this book at all. I was “in the zone,” feverish with inspiration, riding hide high on the tide of wild and wonderful ideas, mining a motherlode of rich storytelling resources. Since I felt free to draw upon everything van Vogt wrote for inspiration, and since van Vogt is the most imaginative writer in Science Fiction (I hurl down my gauntlet at any who says otherwise) I had no lack of ideas.

The framework of a van Vogt tale, his storytelling technique, allows great flexibility in conceit: think about it! Since Gilbert Gosseyn is shot to pieces in the first third of the first book, and wakes up in another body on Venus, what in the world could happen to him that would be ruled out by the plot logic? Since he does not know who he really is, who could he really not be?

In such a rich atmosphere, against such a wondrous backdrop, can I be blamed if I allowed my writer’s imagination to soar so high the air got thin? There was no question of holding back; the only question was whether the wing muscles on my muse could stand the strain.

No, this book was a delight to write. The only challenge was trying to reach the high standard set by van Vogt. Whether I am equal to the task or not, the kind readers must decide.

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Prison Fellowship and President Bush

Posted August 7, 2008 By John C Wright

Sent along by a very dear friend of mine. The press is so busy denouncing this man, it forgets he is human.


At the Foot of the Cross… A Story You Haven’t Heard


A story about our President

BreakPoint with Charles Colson

January 6, 2004

Angel Tree, our Prison Fellowship program for prisoners’ children, is one of the great unheralded volunteer outreaches in America. Over the Christmas holidays these past few weeks, approximately 100,000 volunteers delivered Angel Tree gifts to more than 525,000 children of inmates.

You didn’t read about this in the newspapers, nor would I expect that you should. It’s not really that newsworthy that Christians help people in need. But there are two of our volunteers, who delivered forty presents, that I think you should have read about but didn’t. For reasons best known to themselves, the media ignored the fact that two of the volunteers were President and Mrs. George Bush. And they delivered gifts to forty inner-city kids in a church basement three days before Christmas.

President and Mrs. Bush arrived at three-o’clock, Monday, December 22, at the Shiloh Baptist Church in Alexandria, Virginia. Now, presidents don’t move anywhere without a great deal of fuss. The police were out, the roads blocked, and Secret Service were roaming around the church. And when the president arrived, he was accompanied not only by his own team, but also by a pool of reporters, forty or so members of the press. For ten minutes they popped their flashbulbs, scribbled their notes, and then were ushered out.

I remember from my days with President Nixon what photo opportunities are: Get the picture and leave. So I thought the Bushes would shortly depart, but they didn’t. They stayed long after the cameras were gone to greet every child, to have their picture taken with them, their mothers, and their grandmothers, to talk with them, and to ask questions. Though the press didn’t report it, I noticed that both the president and Mrs. Bush talked to the Hispanic children in Spanish.

Just before the president left, I introduced him to Al Lawrence, a member of our staff. I told the president that I had met Al more than twenty years ago in a prison. Jesus had got hold of Al’s life, and he’s been working for us ever since. Then I told the president that Al’s son was now a freshman at Yale. At that point the president stopped, exclaimed, “We’re both Yale parents,” and threw his arms around Al Lawrence-an African-American
ex-offender being embraced by the president of the United States in a church basement. The ground is indeed level at the foot of the cross.

I tell you this story because it’s a wonderful Christmas story, and you probably haven’t heard it. With all those reporters who crowded into that basement, the visit resulted in almost universal media silence.

I suppose there are many explanations for this, but I’ll offer mine. The president is a Christian who really cares for “the least of these,” who does this not for photo ops, but because he’s genuine. That is something that his detractors in the media simply can’t handle. Conservatives caring for the poor? Never. It dashes the stereotypes.

But surely Christians ought to be rejoicing that the most powerful man in the world and his wife, a couple of days before Christmas, had a wonderful visit with the most powerless people in our society.

After all, that echoes the Christmas message, doesn’t it? The most powerful came to be with the least powerful to give us hope.

By: Eva Dean

Fermi and Tippler, or, Where is Everybody?

Posted August 7, 2008 By John C Wright

I have heard the argument made (by Tippler, I think) that self-replicating van Neumann style space probes, even at sublight velocities, since they theoretical can reproduce at a geometric rate, should have overrun the galaxy long ago, if ever an intelligent civilization had once created them.

This is an intellectual argument, the argument of a scientist, not of an economist. By an intellectual argument, I mean, an argument that does not take real-world limitations into account. I can just imagine a similar argument made before the invention of the Internet to prove that one virus would take over and crash all computer systems whatsoever. (Indeed, I am reminded of the Marxist daydream that says one business will eventually take over all others, buy up all land from pole to pole, and monopolize the world. Because business “inevitably” leads to monopoly, donchaknow).

Because when I contemplate the von Neumann machines, or, to use an SF example, the Monolith from Arthur C. Clark’s 2001: A SPACE ODYSSEY, I think, what are the costs versus the benefits? Because it costs something, time, resources, energy, whatever, for a self-replicating machine to replicate itself. What makes that cost-benefit outweigh the opportunity costs. Is there not something else the Monolith builders want to do with their resources?

Imagine this:

First, you are a Monolith sent out by the Forerunners. You land on Earth, but, instead of using your matter control beams to suck up the total mass of the nickel-iron core of the planet to creating a multimillion copies of yourself to send out to other worlds, you decided to settle down, start a small farm, think about abstract mathematics, write poetry, or play backgammon, and so you just stayed in hibernation mode with nine-tenths of your systems on standby, resting at the bottom of Crater Lake in Arizona, or in the Tunguska river bed in Siberia.

Why continue the mission? Is there some economic benefit to you? Is the a cost involved? Can you afford it? Are you required by law or programming to do so? What if your home planet is long dead, are you still bound by that law? How long before that programming mutates due to a computer hiccough, and you turn into the dread and dread NOMAD, whose mission is to sterilize all imperfect life forms?

Second, what if you had been sent out by a form of life, let us call them “The Flat Ones” who only live (Robert Forward style) on the surface of Neutron Stars. You are programmed to examine carefully the high-gravity environments where life, nine times out of ten, is known to evolve. Sometimes you check the photospheres of still-burning stars and the cores of superjovian planets. Now, it is known to your science that in .01 percent of cases life evolves in microgravity environments on small rocky worlds near small yellow stars, but the return on investment from such cases has historically been trivial: those carbon-based life forms don’t life long, they are warlike, and they don’t make good eating. Why would you bother looking there for them?

Third, what happens when some bright hive-mind of worm creatures from beyond the Crab Nebula finds out there is a rich source of materials to be had from these Forerunner Monoliths. All you need to do is crack open the black outside shell, and there is all sorts of subatomic computer circuits, energy batteries, star drives, and monolith-reproducing machinery for you to use. AND ITS ALL FREE!

Instead of making another van Nuemann Machine, you set your van Nuemann machine to make chessburgers, coca cola, and fine damascened gold. The Crab Nebula worms simply need to send out Monolith-lampreys to find the Monoliths, and they are as rich as Croesus.

Well, if the Monolith builders are still around, you do not have the Forerunners able to spread throughout the entire Galaxy in a few thousand years, you have them involved in something between a war and an arms race. They have to start equipping their Monoliths with weapons and evasion-systems, and they need to turn resources away from the search for scientific data to defense and offense against the Worms.

Then the Planet-Killers from Greg Bear find out about the Worm-Forerunner war, and it shocks them into warlike paranoia. They set about to find and destroy the Monoliths, raather than simply cannibalize them for parts. 

You see the problem with Galaxy-should-be-filled-by-now-with-von-Neumann machines argument? The argument simply assumes a geometrical progression of effort from the Forerunners. If they have the technical capacity to fill up the world with machines, ergo (so he reasons) they would do so. I say that unless they had the economical and legal capacity to fill up the galaxy with machines, ergo (so I reason) they will not do so — not unless it is worth their investment. They may have other things to do with their time. If you create self-creating machines, you don’t have machines, at that point, you have an ecology.

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First and Last Contact.

Posted August 6, 2008 By John C Wright

Its a big universe out there. Jo Walton at Tor has an article on this, asking, if we are not alone in the universe, why are we alone so far?

http://www.tor.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=blog&id=2776

The science fictional answers to the paradox are:
The aliens are keeping a low profile (Ken MacLeod’s Engines of Light)
The aliens are benevolently waiting for us to be mature enough to meet them (Heinlein’s Have Space Suit Will Travel)
The aliens are too advanced for us to notice them (Carl Sagan’s Contact and in Clarke’s 2001)
Earth is a preserve (David Brin’s Uplift books)
Earth is a recruitment center (Jerry Pournelle’s Janissaries)
Earth is a meat locker (the movie SIGNS by M. Night Shyl)
Earth is under quarantine (C.S. Lewis’ Out From the Silent Planet)
Advanced Aliens go into the singularity and don’t care about the outside universe any longer (Verner Vinge’s Marooned in Realtime)
Space is big, and there aint no such thing as a ftl drive, Virginia (Larry Niven’s Known Space, Le Guin’s Ekumen)
Aliens are warlike, and kill each other off (Fred Saberhagen’s Berserkers)
Aliens are just too alien to care about contacting us.
Intelligent life is just too rare, and the chances of surviving long enough without natural or manmade disaster just too small to allow for contact (any number of sf authors, starting with Olaf Stapledon).

Take your pick or make up your own. One of the factors in the so-called Drake Equation has to be very low: either not many stars have planets, or not many planets have life, or not much life is intelligent life, or not much intelligent life is civilized, or not many civilizations want to make the effort to find us, or the distance is just too far, the time involved just too long, the effort too great and the rewards too minor.

Myself, I like the answer in Greg Bear’s Anvil of Stars, and also in the Spider-Robinson fixup of Robert Heinlein’s Variable Star: the aliens are warlike, and First Contact is always Last Contact, because they kill off young technological species before we can form a threat to them. 

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The Horrible Earth’s of Heinlein’s Juveniles

Posted August 6, 2008 By John C Wright

Jo Walton over at Tor has a few reflections on the dis-utopias in Heinlein’s juveniles.

Heinlein isn’t usually noted for his dystopias. […]  But as I was gazing out over the cornfields of Iowa … I found myself thinking about US rural poverty, which led me naturally to reflecting on US rural poverty in Starman Jones. In Starman Jones, Max is a dirt-poor farmer teen who leaves home in search of adventure and opportunity when his stepmother marries again. Max has an eidetic memory and is a lightning calculator, which is enough to get him promoted to starship captain practically as soon as he gets off the planet, but on Earth isn’t enough for him to qualify as apprentice to a dustman. Earth has become dominated by Guilds, all of which demand fees and recommendations and kickbacks to allow people to join. Max cheats, lies and bribes his way off this horrible place to make good among the stars.

The other Earths of Heinlein’s juveniles aren’t much better, as I remember…

Read the whole thing here: http://www.tor.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=blog&id=2922

Since I recently reread many a Heinlein juvenile, I must say I agree with the conclusion. Heinlein believed in Malthus, and thought overpopulation, over-regulation, war, and disaster were the destiny of mankind. If you read his nonfiction (for example, A TRAMP ROYALE) you know this reflects his worries and his view of the world. As a kid, I simply did not notice the chilling little touches in the opening chapters of FARMER IN THE SKY describing calorie rationing; the closing chapters contain a completely pointless bull session where some nonentity character steps in and gives a speech predicting disaster for the overcrowded earth.

Heinlein was the Mark Steyn of his generation: he thought demographics controlled everything from the wealth of your nation to what kind of government you can have — too much crowding means no democracy in the Heinlein theory of history, for example. Heinlein was also a romantic about frontiers, as all Americans should be; and romance about frontiers means disillution and claustropobia about the regulation and overcrowding of cities and civilized life.

If you want to see my reviews of Heinlein revisited, see below:

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Stars as Old Friends

Posted August 5, 2008 By John C Wright

This amuses and astonishes me, even though it should not. Because so many science fiction writers take pains to use the names of real stars in their fictions, and to describe some of their real characteristics and dimensions, many of these names are old and familiar to me, but only as scenery. I really had no idea how awesome are the sizes of these stars.

 

 


As for the planets, we all know all about them:

Mercury is the home of mountainous Demonland, ruled by Lord Juss, and watery Witchland, ruled by the deathless King Gorice, who are locked in eternal and never-ending war due to the benevolence of the gods, and as a reward to Lord Juss and his brethren, who, because they are macho jerks, prefer eternal war to peace. Whatever. But they sure talk pretty.

Pluto (not shown here) is both the advanced base of the attacking peoples known as the Wormfaces, and also the throneworld of the ancient Mi-Go, or fungi from Yuggoth. This planet is destined to be burned out of existence when a fusion-driven spacecraft operated by Kzanol the Slaver accidentally ignites the frozen layers of methane and oxygen.

Venus, or Perelendra, is eternally hidden by clouds, so what little we know of surface conditions, we know about only through the mystical telepathic transmissions from Carson Napier. Evidence suggests that Zsa Zsa Gabor lives there, along with a matriarchal male-free culture of really hawt Amazonian showgirls with rayguns and great gams.

We all know that Barsoom, or Mars, as you call it, is the home of the Hrossa, Sorn and Pfifltriggi, whose first interstellar invasion landed in Grover’s Mill, New Jersey, where they were wiped out by improper decontamination procedures. Or something like that.

Earth is a mythical planet inhabited by a race that is centaur from the waist up and Minotaur from the waist down, if such an odd chimera can be imagined. Freaks.

More importantly, the Moon we know is where the secret base of Kurt Newton is hidden, perhaps in that mysterious ‘Blue Area’ where the Watcher resides, or perhaps not for from the Monolith at Tycho crater, and artifact left over by the Forerunners, who peopled this arm of the galaxy, by an astonishing coincidence, with people who look just like us, except some of them have brow ridges.

Neptune we know to be the final home of the highly-evolved Eighteenth Men, who have sent psychotelepathic messages back to time to Olaf Stapledon, and revealed in their mysterious and benevolent way that life sucks and we are all going to die, but we should be glad about it.

Uranus is not shown here, because the scientific community, gone made with power after their successful attempt to reclassify Pluto from a planet to a dwarf planet, have reclassified Uranus as a type of roast duck, rather than a gas giant. They also changed the name of Peking to Beijing. It is reported that Thorin Oakensheild, Albrecht, and ‘Doc’ all are willing to accept Pluto as a ‘Dwarf Planet’, provided they can mine mithril there.

Saturn‘s moon Titan is the home of Saturn Girl, famous telepath of the Legion of Superheroes.

The moons of Jupiter is where Grey Roger, that mysterious super-pirate, has his base.


 

 

The stars are less familiar than the planets. Let us fill in the personality of some of these stars.


Sirius I will always think of as the home star of the villains from Isaac Asimov’s LUCKY STARR series, basically space-Nazi robot-makers. Curse that evil robotic space-Nazi dog!

Strangely enough, the evil space-Nazis from Sirius do not bother to make their robots free from the absolute prohibition that they cannot harm human beings, or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm. Laboring under that restriction, I think one of the Bolo supertanks from Keith Laumer would like ’em in a fair fight, not to mention Imperial Combat Droids from Star Wars. 

Pollux is where the Captain Kirk encountered the space-God Apollo, who seduced Leslie Parrish, who wore one the most alluring and daring space-dresses of the Orion Arm.

Arcturus is the star of the evil planet Tormance, to which the doomed hero Maskull flies naked in a crystal vessel propelled by Arcturian back-rays, in the strange gnostic fantasy A VOYAGE TO ARCTURUS. 

Rigel is where Captain Pike fought a one-horned monster in an abandoned fortress, with the battle theme of Alexander Courage roaring away in the background.

More importantly, it is the home of the Rigellian Concourse appearing in the Demon Princes novels by Jack Vance, as vast system of twenty-six habitable worlds, from Alphanor to Zymurgy; and Rigel IV is the home of the Rigellians, first of the Lens-bearing species visited by Lensman Samms, and the first race to have produced a Second Stage Lensmen, Trigonsee. Also, Simpsons fans will recognize Rigel as the home system of Kang and Kodos. By “an astonishing coincidence”, the spoken Rigellian language is identical to English.

Betelgeuse is the home star of the Planet of the Apes (in the Pierre Boulle novel, not in the movie. Which planet is the Planet of the Apes in the movie is a bit of a surprise.) 

But, luckily, the women of the planet of the apes are quite attractive.

 

Some of them are pretty enough to kiss! Though I have heard the men are ‘so damn ugly.’

Antares, of course, is the primary of planet Kregen, where Prescot of Scorpio was teleported at the behest of the mysterious Star Lords.

 

If anyone has used the titanic stars MY Cephei or V V Cephei A in a Science Fiction story, it is one I have not read.

(Wikipedia describes it as: “V V Cephei is an eclipsing binary star system located in the constellation Cepheus, approximately 3,000 light years from Earth. A red supergiant fills the system’s Roche lobe when closest to its companion blue star, the latter appearing to be on the main sequence. Matter flows from the red supergiant onto the blue companion… VV Cephei is an eclipsing binary star system located in the constellation Cepheus, approximately 3,000 light years from Earth. A red supergiant fills the system’s Roche lobe when closest to its companion blue star, the latter appearing to be on the main sequence. Matter flows from the red supergiant onto the blue companion….the third largest star in this galaxy (after the hypergiant VY Canis Majoris).”)

This would be a great place to set a science fiction wonder tale. Aspiring writers take note: V V Cephai A might not be a star at all, but a Dyson Sphere shedding waste heat.

A darn big Dyson Sphere at that: the radius is nigh that of the orbit of Saturn.

 

 

 

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Humor from the Onion

Posted August 1, 2008 By John C Wright

Al Gore Places Infant Son In Rocket To Escape Dying Planet

EARTH—Former vice president Al Gore—who for the past three decades has unsuccessfully attempted to warn humanity of the coming destruction of our planet, only to be mocked and derided by the very people he has tried to save—launched his infant son into space Monday in the faint hope that his only child would reach the safety of another world.

“I tried to warn them, but the Elders of this planet would not listen,” said Gore, who in 2000 was nearly banished to a featureless realm of nonexistence for promoting his unpopular message. “They called me foolish and laughed at my predictions. Yet even now, the Midwest is flooded, the ice caps are melting, and the cities are rocked with tremors, just as I foretold. Fools! Why didn’t they heed me before it was too late?”

Al Gore—or, as he is known in his own language, Gore-Al—placed his son, Kal-Al, gently in the one-passenger rocket ship, his brow furrowed by the great weight he carried in preserving the sole survivor of humanity’s hubristic folly.

“There is nothing left now but to ensure that my infant son does not meet the same fate as the rest of my doomed race,” Gore said. “I will send him to a new planet, where he will, I hope, be raised by simple but kindly country folk and grow up to be a hero and protector to his adopted home.”

Read, as they say, the whole thing. http://www.theonion.com/content/news/al_gore_places_infant_son_in

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